Trump Declares Ceasefire with Iran ‘Over’: Political Fallout Pending

Ceasefire Collapse Impacts Trump’s Approval Ratings

President Donald Trump announced the end of the ceasefire between the United States and Iran on Wednesday. Historical data suggests Trump’s approval ratings will soon reflect this change. Every ceasefire breakdown in 2026 has led to declines in Trump’s numbers, while periods of ceasefire saw recoveries. Nate Silver’s Bulletin average shows a correlation between Trump’s approval ratings and the ceasefire status since February when the war began.

Trump made the announcement at the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, following attacks by Iran on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and subsequent U.S. retaliatory strikes. “As far as I’m concerned, it’s just a waste of time,” Trump commented to reporters. After these events, the U.S. initiated more strikes on Iran, signaling a definitive end to the ceasefire.

As of Wednesday, Silver Bulletin data had yet to capture the response to Trump’s remarks. His approval rating stood at 43.1 percent, with disapproval at 52.7 percent, consistent since early July.

Ceasefire’s Influence on Trump’s Approval Rating

Prior to the current stability, late June saw unrest when ceasefire violations occurred from June 21 to June 24. Trump’s disapproval rating peaked at 54.4 percent. Conversely, when the ceasefire memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed on June 17 held, approval ratings improved.

Trump experienced peak approval rates since the war’s start, hitting 43 percent just after reaching a preliminary framework to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This followed recovery in late May, with approval rebounding to 43.3 percent amidst peace agreement rumors, remaining steady into mid-June.

Earlier in May, approval had sharply fallen to 41.9 percent due to Iranian attacks on the UAE. This happened shortly after Trump’s announcement of Project Freedom, aimed at aiding commercial ship transit in the Strait.

Prior to these declines, approval reached a high of 44.4 percent in April after Trump indefinitely extended the ceasefire.

Potential for War Resumption Raises Concerns

The recent exchange of fire increased apprehensions that conflict could reignite. Trump’s comments about the ceasefire being over added uncertainty to the fragile situation, leading to a surge in oil prices. Concerns rose that renewed fighting could spread across the Middle East and disrupt energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial economic route.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi remarked on social media that Trump’s statements represent U.S. policy failure, rather than strength.

While Trump has hinted at actions like seizing Kharg Island, Iranian leadership remains divided. Hard-liners aim to control the waterway for leverage, while pragmatists seek peace to lift sanctions and boost Iran’s economy.

Formal negotiations were planned post the funeral of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who died in February. Discussions are to center on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and limiting Iran’s nuclear capabilities.

Timeline: Breakdown of Ceasefire Agreements

Although Trump stated that the ceasefire ended, talks might still take place. Mentioning negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, he implied further negotiation might occur.

Recent grievances include:

• June 17: A memorandum halted military operations, reopening the Strait and lifting naval blockades.
• June 19: Fighting in Lebanon questioned the deal’s conditions. Tehran insisted the MOU required cessation across all fronts.
• June 20: Iran accused the U.S. of bad faith over naval presence disputes.
• June 25: The Singapore tanker Ever Lovely was attacked in the Strait, attributed to Iran.
• June 27: Further accusations followed retaliatory U.S. strikes on Iranian military targets.
• July 7-8: The U.S. launched strikes following Iranian attacks on vessels in the Strait.

News editors involved include Jason Lemon and Sam Wilson.