Gulf Monarchies Reassess U.S. Ties Amid Changing Middle East Dynamics

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For many years, Gulf monarchies were pivotal allies of the United States in the Middle East. The U.S. established a robust network of military bases across countries such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman. These nations hosted American troops, purchased U.S. weapons, and aligned with Washington’s regional interests. In exchange, they sought protection under the U.S. security umbrella.

This longstanding relationship is now under strain. A significant geopolitical change is occurring within the royal courts of the Gulf states. They are reevaluating whether the U.S. remains a dependable security provider or simply a power that exploits their territory, leaving them vulnerable.

The shift intensified with President Trump’s actions against Iran. The U.S., alongside Israel, launched strikes against Iran. Gulf states cooperated, allowing American warplanes to operate from their bases. Trump highlighted Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE as key partners, contrasting them with NATO and Indo-Pacific allies. However, Gulf states faced threats to their energy and desalination facilities as a result of Iranian responses. U.S. forces deployed advanced defenses to protect Israel, while the Gulf took the brunt of Iran’s retaliation. This experience has reshaped their strategic thinking.

An additional turning point was Trump’s announcement of “Project Freedom,” aimed at ensuring the security of commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait denied U.S. base access for the mission. Qatar limited activities at its Al-Udeid Air Base. Without Gulf support, the mission was canceled after a brief operation.

Gulf states have signaled their independence by vetoing a major U.S. military plan. This represents a fundamental shift from their previous automatic alignment with Washington. Cooperation with the U.S. is now conditional, not guaranteed. They question the existing military arrangements that place them at the frontline in any U.S.-Iran conflict.

Gulf monarchies are now adopting a more conditional stance, echoing Trump’s “America First” policy with their own “Gulf First” approach. They have become selective in supporting U.S. military operations. Efforts to diversify defense partnerships, acquire non-American technology, and explore new security frameworks are underway. Diplomatic engagements with regional rivals, including Iran, have increased.

This development should concern Washington. The U.S. has relied on Gulf cooperation for regional air operations, naval activities, intelligence sharing, and energy security. The allegiance may not be as steady as before. Trump’s viewpoint on alliances has shown Gulf rulers that U.S. partnerships may now depend on changing cost-benefit analyses. Gulf leaders are increasingly wary of relying solely on American military campaigns.

The implications reach beyond the Iran issue. If Gulf states become less supportive of U.S. military activities, the American presence in the Middle East could significantly diminish. While the U.S. boasts advanced military technology, its impact relies on stable access and political backing. The current situation poses a strategic dilemma for Washington. Alienating both NATO and Gulf allies highlights the challenges of operating effectively in isolation.

Though Gulf monarchies are not abandoning U.S. ties, they are redefining them to avoid becoming targets for U.S. military actions. Once allies learn to reject automatic cooperation, they rarely revert to old habits.

Brahma Chellaney is the author of nine books, including the award-winning “Water: Asia’s New Battleground.”