Challenges in U.S. Munitions Supply Amid Conflict with Iran

The United States has found itself unprepared for the demand for munitions during its conflict with Iran. Over ten weeks of fighting, along with intermittent confrontations, have depleted much of the Army’s long-range ATACMS and Precision Strike Missiles. The Army also faces significant shortages in THAAD and Patriot air defense systems. Additionally, the Navy’s stock of Tomahawk land attack and Standard air defense missiles is reduced, and the Air Force lacks joint air-to-surface standoff missiles.

In response to these challenges, the War Department is arranging long-term production contracts. One notable agreement is with Lockheed-Martin for increased Patriot missile production, potentially totaling $59 billion by 2032. The contract aims to triple the current production rate at Raytheon by the end of 2030. Lockheed-Martin plans to hire more staff and enhance its facilities.

A similar deal with RTX, Raytheon’s parent company, was made in February to raise Tomahawk production to at least 1,000 units annually, up from roughly 60. Raytheon will boost AMRAAM missile production from 1,200 to over 1,900 units, while also enhancing production of Standard Missiles SM-6 from 300 to 500 units a year. RTX confirmed plans to increase SM-3 IIA and accelerate SM-3 IB production, but did not offer specific numbers.

Three main factors contributed to the munitions shortages. Initially, post-Cold War policymakers believed munitions demands would decrease. The Pentagon also repeatedly used munitions funding to cover other program costs. Furthermore, the military underestimated consumption rates during long conflicts, such as the war in Iraq and engagements with the Houthis.

The Biden administration realized just-in-time munitions production was inadequate and began to enhance production. Previous administrations and Congress also allocated more funds to munitions production. Despite new long-term agreements, increasing production is not straightforward. Many small subcontractors need financial support to expand their facilities. Additionally, finding enough workers for these expansions is uncertain for prime contractors and their subcontractors.

Lockheed plans three-shift, around-the-clock production but may not meet its targets until 2030. Other contractors find similar challenges in meeting production goals sooner. Meanwhile, the U.S. faces ongoing threats from Russia, China, Iran, and their proxies.

Complicating matters, the Pentagon is committed to other priorities, like the strategic and conventional submarine production, battleship program, B-70 bomber, Golden Dome missile defense, and other projects. This could impact whether the current munitions production surge continues.

The administration and Congress must remain vigilant to prevent munitions from becoming secondary funding sources after the Iran conflict. Future conflicts should not catch the military unprepared with insufficient munitions.

Dov S. Zakheim serves as a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and vice chairman of the board for the Foreign Policy Research Institute. He previously held roles as undersecretary of Defense (comptroller) and chief financial officer for the Department of Defense from 2001 to 2004, and deputy undersecretary of Defense from 1985 to 1987.