Minnesota Senate Race: Flanagan Leads Tafoya in Tight Contest

A recent poll reveals Democrat Peggy Flanagan holding a slight edge over Republican Michele Tafoya in Minnesota’s U.S. Senate race. Flanagan leads with 44% to Tafoya’s 42% among likely voters, emphasizing the competitive nature of the election as the November midterms approach. Conducted by TIPP/League of American Workers from August 31 to September 2, the survey included 1,201 likely voters and shows a statistical tie with a margin of error of 3%.

The poll also indicates that 4% are supporting other candidates, 2% are choosing someone else, and 8% remain undecided. The survey follows the recent nominations of both candidates, who are now competing for the seat vacated by Democratic Senator Tina Smith. While the League of American Workers is not officially connected to the Republican Party, it is led by Steve Cortes, a former adviser to Trump.

Midterm elections often evaluate the political climate for the reigning party, and history suggests the president’s party tends to lose seats. The Republicans currently have a slight majority in the House and Senate. The Cook Political Report labels the race as likely Democrat, and previous results show Kamala Harris winning the state by about 4 points over Donald Trump in 2024.

Lexi Byler, a spokesperson for Flanagan’s campaign, criticized Tafoya’s alignment with Donald Trump’s policies, accusing her of supporting harmful agendas and tariffs. Byler argued these policies negatively impact Minnesotans, especially farmers.

Tafoya’s statement: “Our race is in play! Minnesotans deserve accountability, leadership, and better governance. This race is wide open. Let’s win it!”

In the upcoming general election, Flanagan, Minnesota’s lieutenant governor, represents the Democratic Party after defeating Angie Craig in the primaries. Her win highlights the growing influence of the progressive wing of the party, with endorsements from figures like Bernie Sanders and Ilhan Omar. Flanagan’s more progressive stance contrasts with Tafoya, a former NFL reporter, who seeks to leverage her name recognition and outsider status for a statewide win.

As both parties focus on making gains in Minnesota, the race has drawn national interest. Previous polls showed Flanagan with a bigger lead. However, the current numbers suggest Tafoya might be closing that gap. Flanagan garners more support from Gen-Z, Millennials, women, Black, and Hispanic voters, whereas Tafoya appeals more to older, male, white voters. Independents are divided equally, with 37% supporting each candidate. Among registered voters, Flanagan holds a 2-point lead.

Regarding favorability, Tafoya’s rating stands at 34% favorable against 30% unfavorable, with 36% unsure. Flanagan’s ratings show 39% favorable, 34% unfavorable, and 28% undecided. Notably, the survey explored voter opinions on Flanagan’s stance on gender transitions for minors, though no parallel question was posed about Tafoya.

Market predictions put Flanagan in the lead. Kalshi estimates Flanagan with a 90.5% chance of winning, while Polymarket gives her a 94% likelihood. These projections underscore the current perceived advantage for the Democrat as the election draws nearer.