Collins and Jackson in Tight Race for Maine Senate

Recent polls indicate a close contest between Democrat challenger Troy Jackson and incumbent Senator Susan Collins for one of Maine’s Senate seats. Both candidates will participate in the first of four debates before the November 3 election.

Troy Jackson entered the race after Graham Platner dropped out in July amidst a sexual assault allegation, which he denies. Jackson, a fifth-generation logger and former Maine Senate president, has led over Collins in most surveys. However, recent polls from the New York Times and co/efficient show Collins gaining, though most results are within margins of error. Collins has narrowed Jackson’s prediction market lead from over 70% in September to 59% by Tuesday.

The candidates will highlight their credentials and address campaign issues during the debate on Tuesday. Collins will confront concerns about a federal corruption probe and her ties to Donald Trump. Jackson, in the race for less than three months, faces challenges in gaining trust.

According to a Marist Poll released on Tuesday, Jackson leads Collins 51% to 47%, a four-point edge within the 3.8-percentage point margin of error. The survey of 1,505 registered voters shows Jackson winning among independents, boosted by anti-Trump sentiment. Maine voters disapprove of Trump’s performance, with 59% expressing disapproval.

In the poll, 44% of voters say their choice is mainly against Trump, while 16% view their vote as supporting him, and 39% say Trump plays little role in their decision. Despite Jackson’s lead, 57% believe Collins will ultimately win.

A CBS News poll last week shows an even split at 50% each. Collins’s experience is seen as beneficial, with 62% viewing it positively, compared to 38% for Jackson. However, Jackson is favored as the candidate for needed change. Notably, 10% of voters are undecided and may change their vote.

The debate is crucial for both candidates, offering a chance to shape the race narrative. Collins’s long tenure contrasts with Jackson’s recent entry on July 25. A co/efficient poll found 44% view Collins favorably, while 47% hold an unfavorable view. For Jackson, 36% view him favorably, 47% unfavorably, and 16% have no opinion.

A New York Times/Press Herald/Siena Poll found 6% of likely voters have not heard of Jackson, while 4% offer no opinion on him. Bev Uhlenhake, a former Maine Democratic Party chair, likens Jackson’s situation to Kamala Harris’s late entry into the 2024 race, noting the difficulty in establishing a narrative late in the campaign.

Collins faces challenges as Democrats link her campaign to Trump’s policies. Despite Donald Trump’s unpopularity in recent elections, Collins has maintained her seat, known for moderate stances and cooperation across party lines. However, the current political climate is challenging, with low presidential approval ratings. Democratic criticism also targets her legislative support for Trump, including her vote for Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

Jackson benefits from Democratic support, with a super PAC spending $3.4 million on ads targeting Collins. Jackson will also gain visibility with Senator Bernie Sanders campaigning alongside him in Maine. Meanwhile, Trump considers rallying in Maine, acknowledging it as a battleground.

The first debate between Collins and Jackson is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET in Portland, broadcast live on CBS 13 News.