Israel Faces Political Deadlock After Election

Israeli left-wing activists are advocating for a government that includes Arab parties. They gathered outside Yashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot’s residence in Herzliya, Israel. The current political scene in Israel sees a stalemate following recent elections. Neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, has a clear path to form a government.

Election Results

The results show opposition parties holding more seats than Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc. However, Eisenkot, a center-right former military chief, lacks a majority without Arab party support, which his allies ruled out during the campaign. Netanyahu’s Likud party received the most votes but also fell short of a majority. His traditional coalition does not hold the 61 seats needed in the 120-seat Knesset.

Government Formation Process

In the coming days, Israel’s president will meet with party leaders to gather recommendations on who should form a coalition. The president isn’t obliged to choose the leader of the largest party but will select the candidate most likely to form a coalition. This candidate has 28 days to gain the backing of at least 61 lawmakers, with a possible 14-day extension. If unsuccessful, another candidate may be given a chance, extending the process over weeks or months.

Potential Paths to Government

Eisenkot could receive more recommendations than Netanyahu, but forming a coalition remains a challenge. His political bloc lacks a majority without Arab party participation. Arab parties represent 21% of the population and have differing positions on Hamas and Gaza, complicating potential alliances. Meanwhile, Netanyahu’s coalition partners also lack sufficient seats to form a government.

Possible Outcomes

• Unity Government: A potential unity government between Eisenkot and Netanyahu could include moderate parties. This coalition might aid cooperation with the Trump administration on regional matters. However, Eisenkot has vowed not to join a Netanyahu-led government. A rotational prime ministership would need negotiation.
• Eisenkot with Arab Parties: Eisenkot’s bloc and Arab parties might achieve over 67 seats together. But Eisenkot and allies have consistently rejected this coalition option due to campaign promises.
• New Elections: Another election is possible if no majority is formed. The president and other leaders urge against it, citing high voter turnout. However, a repeat election might benefit Netanyahu as Arab voter participation and overseas liberal voting could decline.
• Lawmakers Defecting: Persuading opposition lawmakers to defect could shift power. Netanyahu needs about eight defectors; Eisenkot would need approximately 13 without Arab parties, which is highly unlikely under current dynamics.

Opposition Tactics Against Netanyahu

A parliamentary majority opposing Netanyahu could advance legislation supported by Arab lawmakers. Eisenkot’s bloc is contemplating removing the Knesset speaker and investigating political and security issues preceding recent conflicts. They also aim to reverse Netanyahu’s laws seen as detrimental to democratic and judicial institutions. Although these actions won’t establish a new government, they could exert parliamentary influence during coalition talks.

Impact of Renewed Iran Conflict

Netanyahu emphasized the unresolved threats from Iran in his election speech. Eisenkot warned against using security issues for political ends. Renewed conflict with Iran, potentially involving the U.S., could affect opposition plans and increase pressure on Eisenkot to form a unity government with Netanyahu, similar to past collaborations during conflicts.

Analyst Danny Citrinowicz noted Netanyahu’s potential motivation to engage in conflict as a means to influence the government’s formation dynamics. An emergency could coerce Eisenkot into a unity government.