Alaska Senate Race Hinges on Ranked-Choice Votes

The outcome of the U.S. Senate race in Alaska remains uncertain as the vote count progresses. As of November 8, Democrat Mary Peltola led Republican Senator Dan S. Sullivan by 637 votes. Neither candidate has secured 50 percent of the vote thus far. If this threshold is not met by November 18, the state will begin counting voters’ ranked choices.

Potential Impact of a Second Sullivan

Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a candidate sharing the senator’s name, received 3,600 votes, surpassing Peltola’s lead significantly. Data indicates that most of his supporters ranked Peltola higher than the senator.

“State officials had designed the ballot to minimize voter confusion,” arguing against a lawsuit regarding the similar names.

As legal challenges ensue, with a federal judge dismissing a lawsuit from the Department of Justice, discussions around Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system continue. Governor Mike Dunleavy has initiated an investigation into allegations that Peltola’s allies recruited Sullivan Jr.

Ballot Status and Projections

Approximately 51,000 early and absentee ballots remain uncounted. The state will process ranked-choice votes on November 18 if no candidate achieves a majority. Currently, about 10,528 absentee ballots have been distributed but not returned. Domestic ballots are accepted until November 13, and overseas ballots until November 18.

Understanding the Math

The state has counted 215,906 ballots so far. Of these, 204,530 have been processed by scanning machines, displaying voter rankings. The remaining ballots are predominantly hand-counted, especially in rural areas, and have no published rankings yet.

Ranked-choice voting eliminates the last-place candidate and redistributes votes to the next choice. Newsweek’s analysis suggests the following:

• Write-ins are negligible, split evenly.
• Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. is next to exit, redistributing 3,600 votes.
• Gerald Heikes, next to be removed, redistributes additional votes.

This redistributes support and results in an estimated final count where Senator Sullivan leads Peltola by around 333 votes, a shift from Peltola’s initial 637-vote lead.

Uncounted Ballots and Winning Conditions

The candidates aim to surpass the 50% mark to avoid a ranked-choice count. Any new arrivals of mail ballots could shift this outcome. Currently, calculations require Peltola to win uncounted votes by 0.7 points to maintain competitiveness. So far, early and absentee ballots have favored Peltola at 56.5% initially, rising to 58% post-ranked choice.