Bhumjaithai Party’s Unexpected Victory Sparks Realignment in Thailand’s Political Landscape

BANGKOK — Thailand witnessed a significant shift in its political dynamics on Monday, following the surprising triumph of the Bhumjaithai Party in the general elections. Led by Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, the party outperformed expectations, prompting forthcoming coalition discussions.

With 94% of the votes counted, Bhumjaithai emerged as the frontrunner in Sunday’s election, securing 192 out of the 500 seats available in Thailand’s parliament. These figures are based on calculations conducted by Reuters from the election commission’s data.

The progressive People’s Party, initially predicted to take the lead according to some pre-election polls, lagged behind with 117 seats, followed by the Pheu Thai party, which obtained 74 seats. Other smaller parties collectively gained 117 seats, but the exact number of party list seats may vary due to Thailand’s proportional electoral system.

Bhumjaithai captured 30.2% of the votes. Analysts attribute this success to the party’s ability to consolidate the conservative vote, especially amid a rise in nationalist sentiment. This shift saw them claiming several seats formerly held by the Pheu Thai party, which is affiliated with the affluent Shinawatra family.

When questioned about forming a coalition and appointing a new cabinet, Anutin expressed his intention to await the final tally of votes. He indicated that internal dialogues within each party would be necessary to determine the path forward.

Anutin noted that if reinstated as prime minister, he was committed to retaining the incumbent ministers of finance, foreign affairs, and commerce in their roles within the new cabinet.

Anutin called for the election in December, less than 100 days into his tenure, aiming to leverage the surge of nationalism following Thailand’s brief conflict with Cambodia. He described the electoral outcome as “a victory for all Thais.”

Despite Anutin’s outreach, the People’s Party has already declined the possibility of joining a coalition under his leadership. Their leader, Natthaphong Rueangpanyawut, announced on Sunday that they would not pursue the formation of a competing coalition.

Earlier polls from January showed the People’s Party significantly leading Bhumjaithai.

Additionally, voters approved a proposition to amend the constitution, with nearly two-thirds supporting the overhaul of the current charter established post-2014 military coup. This charter has been criticized for granting excessive power to an undemocratic senate.

The process to introduce the new constitution is expected to span at least two years, requiring two more referendums to affirm both the drafting phase and the final document.