Recently, Virginia Democrats put forth a congressional map proposal that, if enacted, might grant the party control over all but one of the state’s districts for the upcoming midterm elections. This proposal suggests that former Vice President Kamala Harris would have won 10 out of Virginia’s 11 congressional districts during the 2024 election, up from six, based on data from the Legislature. Although two victories would have been close, Governor Abigail Spanberger secured these districts by higher margins in last November’s elections.
Currently, the Democrats hold six districts in Virginia, and this redrawn map may enable them to increase their seats by as many as four. This is crucial as they are striving to take control of a narrowly divided House. However, implementing the map for the 2026 elections presents certain challenges. A state court recently impeded the redistricting process, citing procedural errors in passing a constitutional amendment necessary for this change. The case is now in the hands of the state Supreme Court, which will review the appeal.
If the court decides in favor of the Democrats, the next step will be for voters to approve the constitutional amendment. This amendment would allow Democrats to circumvent the state’s redistricting commission, and a vote is expected this spring. The proposed changes in the map include splitting the densely populated Arlington area, part of suburban Washington, into five separate districts, extending some even into rural parts of Virginia.
The 9th Congressional District, represented by Republican Morgan Griffith, would expand to encompass more rural sections of the state, leaving it as the only strong Republican foothold in Virginia.
The debate among Democratic lawmakers about how to strategically redraw the state’s map was extensive. Although they were expected to release their proposal last month, negotiations continued until they reached the current version unveiled this week.
Virginia has emerged as a significant opportunity for Democrats to enhance their seats amidst nationwide mid-decade redistricting battles. Prompted by former President Donald Trump, Republicans initiated similar map changes in Texas, Missouri, and North Carolina. The Democratic response has been most pronounced in California, where redistricting could secure up to five additional seats, potentially balancing out Republican gains elsewhere, such as under Texas’ new map. Voters in California approved this map in November, and the U.S. Supreme Court recently sanctioned its implementation.
Elsewhere, developments like the Maryland House passing a new map that threatens the state’s lone Republican-controlled district have been notable, although facing resistance in the state Senate. Moreover, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has called for a special session to discuss redistricting, aiming for Republican gains with an estimated increase of three to five seats.
Jane C. Timm is a senior reporter for NBC News.

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