Trump’s Approval Ratings Shift Among Christian Groups

President Donald Trump’s approval rating has shown divergent trends among two major Christian groups this year. According to Newsweek analysis, there has been an increase in approval among born-again Protestants and a decrease among Roman Catholics.

Approval Trends

Trump’s approval among born-again Protestants rose from 56 percent in January to 61 percent in July, based on five national Marquette Law School polls. In contrast, approval from Catholics dropped from 54 percent to 45 percent during the same period, with a significant decline recorded between April and May.

This resulted in a net approval rating of plus 22 among born-again Protestants in July, while it stood at minus 10 among Catholics, illustrating a 32-point gap.

Background on Catholic Shifts

The change in Catholic approval occurred amidst Trump’s public tensions with Pope Leo XIV earlier in the year over issues related to the war with Iran and immigration. Pope Leo called for peaceful resolutions and more compassionate approaches to migrants, while Trump opposed the pontiff’s perspectives.

Though polling did not directly link the disputes to the approval rating changes, they coincided with visible divisions between Catholic and Protestant views, the latter remaining a vital part of Trump’s base.

“There has never been a greater president for Christian Americans than President Trump,” White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers stated. “He defended religious rights and parental rights against Democrats, who she accused of threatening Christians’ First Amendment rights.”

Poll Findings

After April, the divergence between born-again Protestants and Catholics became clearer. Born-again Protestants’ support grew from 56 percent in January to 61 percent in July, reflecting a net approval increase from +12 to +22. However, Catholic approval fell from 54 percent to 45 percent over this period, showing an 18-point swing in net approval from +8 to -10.

Data for mainline Protestants showed more stability, with Trump’s approval noted at 47 percent both in January and July, despite some fluctuations in between.

Methodology

Nationwide, the approval slipped from 42 percent in January to 38 percent in May, before rising to 40 percent by July. The drop among Catholics was notably larger than this national average.

The five polls involved interviewed between 1,002 and 1,514 adults, with error margins from plus or minus 2.7 to 3.5 percentage points, while each sample was separate from the last. The polls were conducted at intervals throughout the year.

Trump’s Feud with the Pope

Trump’s standing among Christian demographics has been influenced by his feud with Pope Leo. The pope and Catholic leaders criticized Trump’s immigration policies, contrasting with the views of conservative Catholics who supported the measures.

The conflict escalated post the U.S. involvement in the war with Iran. While the pope advocated for peaceful solutions, Trump emphasized Iran’s nuclear threats.

Trump’s criticism of Leo led to tension, exacerbated by an AI-generated image of Trump as a Christ-like figure, which Trump later removed, clarifying it depicted him as a doctor instead of Jesus.

Pope Leo remains popular with American Catholics, with a Public Religion Research Institute survey in May reporting 56 percent of Americans held a favorable view of the pope versus 34 percent for Trump.

Catholic Voter Significance

Catholic voters are crucial for Republicans due to their sizable numbers and varied political leanings compared to born-again Protestants. The group comprised 20 percent of voters in the 2024 election and 22 percent of Trump’s base, per Pew Research Center analysis.

While Trump secured 55 percent of Catholic votes, his support among white evangelical Protestants was higher at 81 percent. Catholics’ political diversity makes their opinions influential in swing districts.

The narrow battle for Congressional control heightens the importance of Catholic voters. Republicans need to defend vulnerable seats amidst expanded Democratic targets. However, despite internal divisions, Trump draws strong support from Christians due to his conservative stance, especially on religious and abortion rights issues.

Pew Research Center data reveals Trump won 62 percent of Protestant votes and 55 percent of Catholics in 2024, with Christians constituting 79 percent of his voter demographic. This support endures even as church leaders critique his policies.

For inquiries, contact Newsweek editors Matthew Robinson and Robert Greenall.