Major Upsets in 2026 Midterm Primaries: High Incumbent Turnover

The 2026 midterms have seen a significant number of congressional incumbents being ousted in party primaries. According to the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, 12 House members and two senators failed to secure renomination.

Kyle Kondik, Communications Director at the Center for Politics, informed Fox News Digital that the number of incumbents losing is highest in decades outside of full national redistricting years. Historically higher numbers have been during years ending in ‘2,’ marking nationwide redistricting. Although this was only a partial redistricting year, it still stands out.

The defeats are not solely due to redistricting. Other contributors include scandals involving incumbents, opposition from former President Donald Trump against certain GOP lawmakers, and the Democratic Party’s push for generational change. Additionally, the far left succeeded in challenging moderate Democrats.

“Generational shifts and ideological battles define the current political landscape.”

In Michigan, Democratic Rep. Shri Thanedar lost to state Rep. Donavan McKinney, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA). A similar leftward shift occurred in New York, where Rep. Dan Goldman was defeated in the primary by progressive Brad Lander, a former city comptroller supported by socialist Mayor Zohran Mamdani.

Likewise, Rep. Adriano Espaillat of New York lost to community organizer Darializa Avila Chevalier. Chevalier, backed by Mamdani and a member of the DSA, emphasized both ideological and generational changes. Meanwhile, Colorado’s moderate Democrat Rep. Diana DeGette was unseated by DSA member Melat Kiros.

Other races highlighted age and fresh perspectives. Democratic Rep. Christian Menefee, at age 38, emerged victorious over Rep. Al Green, 78, in Texas after a redistricting-induced head-to-head contest.

Trump’s influence was notable, particularly in the downfall of Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, who faced backlash after voting to convict Trump in his second impeachment. Similarly, Texas’ Sen. John Cornyn lost to Ken Paxton, a fervent Trump supporter, despite the former president’s neutral stance throughout the contest.

Numbering among House defeats, Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky lost his renomination to former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, with Trump’s support bolstering Gallrein’s challenge. In a close race in Texas, Rep. Dan Crenshaw fell to a more conservative challenger, state Rep. Steve Toth, who portrayed Crenshaw as anti-Trump despite Trump’s neutrality in the race.

In Florida, controversy doomed Rep. Cory Mills. Mills faced an investigation by the House Ethics Committee and a restraining order from a former girlfriend. Ryan Elijah, a former news and sports reporter, capitalized on these issues to secure a primary victory.

The challenges continue for Republican Rep. Andy Ogles of Tennessee, undone by his controversial statements and social media posts, thwarted by Charlie Hatcher in the primary.

These shifts underscore a pivotal moment in the political environment, emphasizing evolving ideologies and power dynamics ahead of the general election.