Recent Trends in Trump’s Approval Ratings

President Donald Trump’s approval rating among college-educated Americans has significantly decreased in recent weeks. This decline may present challenges for Republicans as they work to maintain control of Congress in the upcoming November elections.

Approval for Trump among college graduates fell from 34% in an Economist/YouGov poll conducted from August 21-24 to 31% in the August 28-31 survey. It further dropped to 30% in the poll conducted from September 4-8. Disapproval among college graduates rose from 63% to 69%, increasing Trump’s net deficit from 29 points to 39 points.

Political Implications of the Shift

This change is noteworthy because college graduates form an increasingly significant part of the Democratic coalition. Trump’s 2024 victory was largely driven by voters without four-year degrees. Pew Research Center analysis revealed that around two-thirds of Trump’s voters lacked a college degree, whereas college graduates made up 48% of former Vice President Kamala Harris’ supporters.

The surveys do not clarify the reasons behind the decline in Trump’s approval. However, three polls showing consistent results could indicate potential challenges for Republican candidates. These races might be influenced by dissatisfaction with Trump and turnout among college-educated voters. Historically, polls have underestimated Trump’s popularity, with the president surpassing preelection expectations in three presidential campaigns.

White House spokesperson Davis Ingle stated, “The ultimate poll was November 5, 2024, when nearly 80 million Americans elected President Trump to deliver on his agenda.” Newsweek reached out to the White House for further comments.

Analyzing Poll Results

The decline in approval ratings among college graduates is driven by a decrease in approval and an increase in strong opposition to Trump’s performance. In the August 21-24 Economist/YouGov poll, 34% approved and 63% disapproved of Trump’s job performance. Among the disapproving, 54% strongly disapproved. This survey included 1,536 U.S. adult citizens, 504 of whom were college graduates.

A week later, approval dropped to 31%, while disapproval rose to 68%. The strongly disapproving percentage increased to 57%. This poll covered 1,592 adult citizens, including 563 college graduates.

The September 4-8 poll showed another shift: 30% of college graduates approved of Trump, and 69% disapproved, with 61% strongly disapproving. In contrast, 41% of non-degree holders approved, while 57% disapproved—giving Trump a higher approval advantage in this group.

Trump’s ratings among college graduates were particularly low on key issues like the economy, inflation, taxes, and government spending. Disapproval rates reached as high as 73% for inflation and 72% for the economy.

The overall margins of error for the polls ranged from about 3.4 to 3.5 percentage points. Although YouGov did not release specific margins for college graduates, the consistent deterioration in Trump’s net rating among this demographic is clear.

Impact on Midterm Elections

The polls suggest college graduates are overwhelmingly leaning toward Democratic congressional candidates. In the September 4-8 survey, 57% indicated they would vote for Democrats, with only 28% supporting Republicans. This shows a 29-point Democratic advantage among college graduates. Conversely, Republicans lead among voters without degrees by a margin of 39% to 33%.

Moreover, 78% of college graduates expressed certainty that they would vote in November, compared to 67% of Americans without degrees. Though national polls highlight Democratic strength among college graduates, individual races rely heavily on local factors and candidates.

For further information, contact Newsweek editors Ben Kelly and Robert Greenall.