The F-35 Fighter Jet Agreement with Saudi Arabia

The approval of advanced F-35 fighter jet sales to Saudi Arabia by the White House demonstrates a strategic move by President Donald Trump, aiming to reposition the Middle East deterrence responsibility onto regional allies. This decision is not without its hazards.

Challenges and Approval

Congress must still approve the deal, which has a long timeline, potentially years before delivery, leaving an immediate impact on oil and gas prices unchanged. This comes amidst rising tensions involving the U.S., its Middle Eastern allies, and the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance.

Concerns from Israel and U.S. Lawmakers

Israeli officials caution against Saudi acquisition of F-35s without diplomatic normalization, fearing it would weaken their defense forces’ aerial lead. Additionally, U.S. lawmakers argue the deal risks exposing cutting-edge American military technology to foreign influences like China, who maintain close ties with Saudi Arabia.

Strategic Period for U.S. and Saudi Arabia

This decision affects both Washington and Riyadh during a critical time, with Saudi Arabia positioned as the frontline against neighboring Yemen’s Ansar Allah, allied with Iran. Former Saudi diplomat, Saad Abdullah Al Hammad, noted this sale changes the landscape of security alliances. The U.S. is reducing offensive military aid to Riyadh, signifying a shift towards arming allies with advanced deterrence capabilities.

A More Independent Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia, free from European colonization since 1932, has historically depended on U.S. support for security, owing to its status as a top oil producer and custodian of Islam’s holiest sites. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is working towards economic diversification, reducing reliance on energy exports, and expanding Saudi Arabia’s security relationships with nations like China, Russia, Pakistan, and Turkey.

Future of Saudi Defense

Trump’s goal to distribute Middle East deterrence responsibilities aligns with his agenda to boost U.S. defense sales. Al Hammad highlighted Washington’s strategy of empowering regional partners with advanced military tools to invigorate the U.S. military-industrial sector.

The F-35s, once acquired, will bolster the Royal Saudi Air Force with superior capabilities, allowing them to effectively counter threats from Ansar Allah and other factions associated with the Axis of Resistance.

Implications of Regional Air Dominance

Israel views this agreement as a direct contest to their regional dominance, having enjoyed exclusive access to F-35s in the Middle East since their acquisition in 2010. Former Israeli Ambassador Michael Oren stressed the complexity of ensuring Israel’s “qualitative military edge” amid new discussions with the U.S.

Diplomatic and Military Dimensions

Netanyahu had called for diplomatic relations as a condition for Saudi F-35 acquisition. However, U.S.-Saudi nuclear cooperation and the mutual defense pact with Turkey and Pakistan indicate that the decision transcends conventional diplomatic agreements.

Impact on Oil, Gas, and Diplomacy

The F-35 sale signals a potential shift towards diplomatic solutions over military confrontation with Iran’s allies. Former State Department official Annelle Sheline advocates negotiations over escalation, suggesting lifting blockades and withdrawing support for the PLC in Yemen as more effective moves.

Economic Considerations

Trump faces pressure with upcoming U.S. mid-term elections and rising fuel prices linked to regional conflicts and the Russia-Ukraine war. Amy Myers Jaffe from NYU highlighted threats to global energy markets beyond Strait of Hormuz shipping, emphasizing damaged refineries in the Gulf and Russia.

Al Hammad stresses Saudi Arabia’s preference for diplomatic resolutions and stable economic environments, crucial to achieving Vision 2030 goals and avoiding prolonged conflicts.