Tight Senate Race Emerges in New Hampshire

Democrat Chris Pappas is witnessing a decrease in his lead against Republican John E. Sununu in the New Hampshire U.S. Senate race. With midterm elections about four weeks away, a recent poll by Rasmussen Reports indicates that 49 percent of voters support Pappas, compared to 44 percent for Sununu. This five-point gap is a decrease from last month’s poll, where Pappas led by 11 points, 45 percent to 34 percent.

The upcoming retirement of Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire opens up the seat for November’s general election. The Cook Political Report currently classifies the race as a toss-up. Midterm elections often challenge the incumbent party, as historically, the president’s party loses seats during these periods. Republicans presently hold a slim majority in both the House and Senate.

In the 2024 presidential election, Former Vice President Kamala Harris narrowly won New Hampshire against President Donald Trump by less than 3 percent. It has been over 15 years since the state elected a Republican senator. Newsweek reached out to the campaigns of both Sununu and Pappas for comments.

Understanding the New Poll

The latest poll reveals that 3 percent of voters would choose Constitution Party candidate Edmond Laplante, while 4 percent remain undecided. Among Democrats, Pappas holds 89 percent of the vote, along with 15 percent of Republicans, and 40 percent of non-affiliated voters. Sununu has the support of 84 percent of Republicans, 8 percent of Democrats, and 44 percent of unaffiliated voters. Women heavily favor Pappas at 53 percent versus 33 percent for Sununu, while 53 percent of men prefer Sununu compared to 42 percent for Pappas.

Pappas, at 46, has a significant lead with voters aged 65 and above, securing 58 percent, while Sununu, 62, holds favor with younger voters, particularly those under 40. The poll, conducted from October 2 to October 4, surveyed 979 likely New Hampshire voters with a margin of error at 3 percent. The news-rating website AllSides labels Rasmussen Reports as “Lean Right,” indicating a moderate alignment with conservative thought or policy agendas.

Craig Agranoff, a political professor at Florida Atlantic University, commented on the race, stating, “Republicans have an opportunity in NH, yet it remains slim. Sununu narrowing an 11-point lead to 5 aligns with the Cook Political Report’s toss-up classification. The Sununu name, ticket splitting, and external funding present a real possibility for Republicans in a state known for voting differently for governor and Senate. Reducing the deficit to 5 points with a month remaining keeps the race active. It offers potential but not certainty for the GOP.”

Professor Agranoff added, “Maintaining the Senate is not limited to NH. Republicans need this seat or similar gains to balance potential losses elsewhere. If Sununu continues to gain ground, it could contribute to majority dynamics. A consistent 5-point lead for Pappas might signal caution rather than a definitive victory path.”

Insights from Other Polls

A recent University of New Hampshire survey showed 50 percent favoring Pappas, 42 percent supporting Sununu, with Laplante at 2 percent, another candidate at 2 percent, and 4 percent undecided. Conducted from September 17 to September 21, the poll included 1,418 likely voters, maintaining a margin of error of 2.6 percent.

An August poll placed Sununu ahead at 45 percent, while Pappas had 43 percent, with 5 percent considering other candidates and 7 percent undecided. Conducted from August 20 to August 24, this poll surveyed 1,878 likely voters, with a margin of error at 2.3 percent, resulting in a statistical tie.

A co/efficient poll from last month indicated a deadlock between the candidates at 46 percent, with 9 percent undecided. Pappas’ favorability stood at 37 percent, with a 51 percent unfavorable rating and 13 percent neutral. Sununu’s favorability was 41 percent, with a 47 percent unfavorable rating and 12 percent neutral. This poll was conducted from September 9 to September 11, surveying 958 likely voters, with a margin of error of 3.15 percent.