Alaska Senate Race: Peltola vs. Sullivan

Democrat Mary Peltola is expanding her lead over Republican Senator Dan Sullivan. They are competing for the Alaska U.S. Senate seat and are set to debate Thursday night. Recent polls show Peltola trending higher than Sullivan. Democrats are hopeful of reclaiming this seat, last held by them in early 2015. Mark Begich previously lost the seat to Sullivan in 2014.

The debate is scheduled from 7 p.m. to 8 p.m. local time. It follows similar debates for the U.S. House and gubernatorial races. An Alaskans for Mary spokesperson expressed confidence in Peltola’s ability to address systemic issues and prioritize Alaskan interests. They emphasized grassroots support and volunteer efforts across Alaska.

President Donald Trump visited Alaska on Tuesday to support Sullivan’s reelection bid. This visit was part of Republican efforts to maintain control over Congress. Newsweek reached out to Sullivan’s campaign for comments.

Why the Alaska Senate Race Matters

As Democrats aim to gain a majority in the Senate, the stakes are high in Alaska. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 advantage. Although Alaska typically supports Republican presidential candidates, it has shown a preference for a split ticket in congressional races. Peltola, a U.S. Representative since 2022, now aims for the Senate.

According to a summary by The New York Times, Peltola leads Sullivan in three polls since late September. Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia recently moved Alaska’s race ranking to “Leans Democratic,” a sign of Democrats gaining momentum.

Latest Polls on Peltola vs. Sullivan

Peltola leads Sullivan by 2 to 7 percentage points in recent polls. An InsiderAdvantage poll showed her with a 6-point lead. In this poll, Peltola had 48.2% support, while Sullivan had 42.6% in the first round. In the final round of Alaska’s ranked-choice voting, the results pointed to Peltola with 50.1% and Sullivan at 48%.

An Alaska Survey Research poll conducted earlier had Peltola at 47% and Sullivan at 45% in the first round. It then showed Peltola and Sullivan at 51% and 49% respectively in the final round. A New York Times/Siena University poll gave Peltola her largest lead over Sullivan with 50% to 43%.

Sullivan has not led Peltola since a Trafalgar Group poll in late September, where he had a slight edge.

Prediction Markets and Key Issues for Voters

Prediction markets indicate a strong belief in Peltola’s chances of succeeding. Traders have put her likelihood of winning at 74%, up from 64% in mid-September. Lucas Kohorst, co-founder of Adjacent Markets, noted that traders are more confident in Peltola than polls suggest.

Alaskan voters face significant concerns. High living costs and fuel prices, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, are primary issues. On Thursday, the average cost of gas in Alaska stood at $4.96 per gallon, surpassing the national average. Utilities are also worried about fuel supplies, as noted by Enstar Natural Gas.

Fisheries, crucial to Alaska’s economy, are another key concern. Declining fish populations and industry health have become focal campaign topics.

How to Watch the Alaska Senate Debate

The debate between Peltola and Sullivan on October 15, beginning at 7 p.m. local time, will last for one hour. It will be broadcast by Alaska Public Media TV, Alaska’s News Source, and KTOO 360TV. Radio listeners can tune into KSKA 91.1 FM in Anchorage or KSKA 91.9 FM in Girdwood. The debate is also available for live streaming at alaskapublic.org.

Newsweek’s team employed Martyn, an AI assistant, to help produce this story.