Iowa’s Congressional Races and GOP Hopes

DES MOINES, Iowa — House Republicans aim to retain their majority in a state where former President Donald Trump won by about 13 points in November 2024. Despite Iowa leaning Republican in recent years, they now face challenges in three of its four congressional districts. Polls increasingly suggest that a Democrat surge could sweep through the Midwest. Republicans dismiss these surveys as tools to discourage GOP voters, asserting that turnout will determine the outcome.

House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn., told GOP supporters in Dubuque, Iowa, “Nobody knows what’s going to happen on November 3. But I’m here to tell you, if our people show up, we win. If our people don’t show up … then we’re going to be scratching and clawing to hang on to every inch that we’ve got.”

Fox News Digital accompanied Emmer and other House Republicans on a tour in Iowa last week. Emmer attended an event for congressional candidate Joe Mitchell in Iowa’s 2nd District, followed by a fundraiser for Rep. Zach Nunn, R-Iowa, in Des Moines. He argued that polling showing Democrats with an advantage was incorrect, emphasizing the importance of Republican voter turnout.

“Republicans do not like to participate in surveys,” Emmer stated. “We are very suspicious of who is collecting the information and how it’s used.”

The Fox News Power Rankings show all but one of Iowa’s four districts are competitive. Nunn’s district and that of Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, R-Iowa, lean Democrat. The seat Mitchell aims to take over from retiring Rep. Ashley Hinson, R-Iowa, is a toss-up. Nationwide, Republicans worry about Trump’s low approval and unpopular policies, paired with high living costs and gas prices, reminiscent of a 2018-style blue wave.

Trump’s tariffs and foreign beef imports particularly impact Iowa, an agriculture-heavy state. Tariffs increase farm equipment costs, and China’s retaliation to Trump’s trade war has hurt American farmers. Trump announced plans for a $15 billion steel plant in Lee County, Iowa, as a countermeasure.

Both Nunn and Mitchell remain optimistic about their campaigns. Mitchell told Fox News Digital, “We feel very confident about the race… traveling the district for 13 months, we’ve talked to every voter we can.” Nunn highlighted their district’s significance: “Des Moines, Iowa, the third district, is now one of the most competitive in the country.” He led a bipartisan bill addressing Trump’s foreign beef imports.

With Trump’s influence, turning out voters could decide the GOP majority’s fate. Nunn initiated his event after a phone call with Trump, who pledged support in Iowa. Trump plans a rally in Sioux City, although it’s in a safe Republican district. Emmer told Fox News Digital, “This midterm will come down to about 10 seats… Iowa is crucial. If Republicans vote, we’ll be fine.”

If Iowa determines the House majority, it would account for about one-third of Republican success. While some Republicans doubt their chances, they agree that turnout is key. A GOP operative familiar with Iowa campaigns explained, “This goes one of two ways… If Republican voters turn out, there’s hope. If not, it’s going to be bad.”

Elizabeth Elkind is a politics reporter for Fox News Digital covering the House of Representatives. Follow her on Twitter at @liz_elkind or send tips to [email protected].