Texas Senate Runoff: Trump Backs Paxton Over Cornyn

Voters in Texas are preparing to head to the polls on Tuesday to choose a Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in the upcoming midterms. Incumbent Senator John Cornyn faces Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who has received a boost from President Donald Trump’s endorsement.

Trump waited before endorsing Paxton, despite having maintained a reasonable relationship with Cornyn over the years. Trump’s backing has become a critical factor in many midterm races, where his endorsed candidates often see success. Paxton’s leading position in recent polls reflects his support among Republican voters, though some fear that aligning with him might risk losing the Senate seat to the Democratic challenger, State Senator James Talarico.

Senator vs. Attorney General: What Polls Show

Polling indicates a slight but steady lead for Paxton in the Republican Senate runoff. Reliable surveys generally show Paxton ahead of Cornyn by a few points. Polling averages further amplify his lead, supported by the unity among conservative voters:

• Quantas Insights (May 21-23): Paxton 52.7%, Cornyn 43.4%, Margin: Paxton +9.3 (MOE: +3.5%)
• University of Houston Hobby School (April 28-May 1): Paxton 48%, Cornyn 45%, Undecided 7%, Margin: Paxton +3 (MOE: ±2.8%)
• Global Strategy Group – Democrat sponsor (May 6-11): Paxton 52%, Cornyn 40%, Margin: Paxton +12 (MOE: ±4%)

Overall, the polling average from March to May shows Paxton at about 48.8% compared to Cornyn’s 41.0%, with Paxton maintaining a 7.8-point advantage. The gap has increased since Trump announced his endorsement.

What Prediction Markets Are Showing

Prediction markets indicate a high probability of Paxton winning the runoff against Cornyn. On Monday, the regulated market Kalshi showed a 95% chance for Paxton, while Cornyn had a 4.4% chance for the nomination. Another market pointed to a possible 10-15 point lead for Paxton as the likely outcome, with a 32% probability, and a more than 20-point gap appeared at 14% as of Monday afternoon.

On Polymarket, Paxton held a 77% chance of achieving a lead of more than 9% over Cornyn, and his chance of winning increased to 96% after Trump’s endorsement. Previously, those figures stood at 62% for Paxton and 36% for Cornyn.

Trump’s Support and Statements

Trump expressed firm support for Paxton on May 19 via Truth Social, praising him as a reliable advocate for Texas and a committed fighter in the Senate. Though acknowledging Cornyn as a ‘good man,’ he criticized the senator’s perceived lack of loyalty to the SAVE AMERICA ACT and other policy goals.

Trump urged voters to choose Paxton, who he described as a loyal ally and an effective attorney general. Paxton responded enthusiastically, reinforcing his commitment to Trump’s America First agenda.

Looking Ahead to the November Election

The winner of the runoff will face James Talarico in November. Talarico combines faith-based values with progressive politics and commands a broad support base in Texas. Despite Texas having supported Trump in the past, Talarico poses a strong challenge.

Following the endorsement, Talarico noted the focus should be on challenging the ‘billionaire mega-donors’ rather than party opposition, emphasizing the goal to aid working people.

Political betting markets exhibit the general election as competitive. A Kalshi platform gave Republicans a 55% chance of maintaining the Senate seat over the weekend, while Talarico held a 45% chance. For Paxton, the chance of defeating Talarico was 57%, with a 42% chance for Talarico.

Cornyn, speaking to Fox News, maintained that he could defend the seat against Talarico, commenting on Paxton’s controversies and highlighting the financial resources supporting Talarico’s campaign.