California Governor Race: Steve Hilton’s Campaign Against Xavier Becerra

Republican Steve Hilton is vying to become California’s first Republican governor in 15 years. He is challenging former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra in the general election. With Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom unable to seek reelection due to term limits, an opportunity arises for Republicans. The GOP has largely united behind Hilton, encouraged by public dissatisfaction over issues like illegal immigration and crime.

The Decision Desk has projected Hilton’s progression to the general election. Former President Donald Trump expressed his support for Hilton’s advancement on Truth Social. As of a recent report, with 83 percent of votes counted, Hilton holds 25.1 percent of the votes, while Democrat Tom Steyer has 22.4 percent. Yet, the Associated Press has not officially declared a second candidate in this race.

Polls on Hilton’s Viability

Polls demonstrate that Hilton could contend for the governorship, facing significant challenges. A SurveyUSA poll showed Hilton tied with Steyer, each at 20 percent, with Becerra trailing at 17 percent. However, an Emerson College poll placed Hilton third, with 21 percent behind Becerra at 28 percent and Steyer at 22 percent.

Following the primary, Democrats might consolidate their support behind a single candidate, potentially widening their lead over Hilton. Although many Republicans support Hilton, he faces an uphill battle against a unified Democratic front. Kalshi odds gave Hilton only a 7 percent chance of winning, compared to Becerra’s overwhelming 70 percent likelihood.

Hilton’s Campaign Strengths

Hilton’s background as a Fox News host has made him a familiar figure with a distinct ideological stance. He focuses on lowering taxes, reducing crime, and addressing Democratic policies he criticizes. Trump endorses Hilton, suggesting he could improve the state if elected. Hilton has vowed to investigate Newsom over alleged fraud if he wins.

Despite significant GOP support, Hilton must attract independents and Democrats to succeed. Registered Democrats in California substantially outnumber Republicans by a two-to-one margin. Discontent with economic conditions or Newsom’s policies might favor Hilton if such voters choose not to participate.

Historical Context

The last Republican to secure a California governorship was Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2006. At that time, Republicans had closer numbers to Democrats among registered voters. Currently, there are over 10 million registered Democrats compared to approximately 5 million Republicans in the state.

Fundraising Efforts

Hilton has raised over $7 million for his campaign, with donations significantly increasing post-April 19. This amount exceeds Becerra’s funds slightly, as the latter raised just over $6 million, mostly after the same date. Steyer leads in fundraising with over $160 million.

Hilton’s path to governorship necessitates broadening his support base by winning over independents and possibly Democrats. This is crucial for his prospects of becoming California’s first Republican governor in 15 years.

Becerra’s Primary Victory

Becerra has secured a place in the November gubernatorial election, succeeding in a crowded primary field. As the former California attorney general, he leverages his extensive public service record and positions himself as a strong opponent to Trump. His campaign prioritizes addressing affordability issues like housing and energy prices.

Becerra could potentially become California’s first Latino governor in over a century, marking a historic achievement. While his experience and policy strengths garner praise, critics have questioned his leadership during the COVID-19 pandemic and other administrative challenges.