California Gubernatorial Primary Race Heats Up as Becerra Leads

Former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra is leading California’s gubernatorial primary, according to a new poll released ahead of the upcoming primary election. While Becerra holds the lead, Democrat Tom Steyer and Republican Steve Hilton are in a close competition for the second position.

California’s Unique Election System

California operates under a top-two primary system. This system places all candidates, regardless of their party, on the same ballot. The top two vote-getters advance to the general election, even if both belong to the same party.

The state has historically favored Democrats in statewide elections. Kamala Harris, former Vice President, won by a substantial margin over Donald Trump in 2024. The last Republican governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, concluded his term in 2011.

Main Candidates for Governor

With Gavin Newsom unable to run again due to term limits, the gubernatorial race has garnered national attention. Prominent candidates include:

• Xavier Becerra, a Democrat and former HHS secretary under Joe Biden.
• Chad Bianco, a Republican serving as Riverside County sheriff.
• Steve Hilton, a Republican political commentator and former adviser to UK Prime Minister David Cameron.
• Matt Mahan, a Democrat and mayor of San Jose.
• Katie Porter, a Democrat and former Orange County Congresswoman.
• Tom Steyer, a Democratic businessman.
• Tony Thurmond, the state Superintendent of Public Instruction and a Democrat.
• Antonio Villaraigosa, a Democratic former mayor of Los Angeles.

Several Democrats dominate the field, offering a range of ideologies. Becerra embodies traditional Democratic values, Porter favors progressive policies, and Villaraigosa is seen as more centrist. Steyer positions himself as a populist progressive, focusing on climate and economic issues. Among Republicans, Bianco aligns with traditional conservatism, while Hilton represents a populist outsider stance, backed by Trump’s endorsement. Hilton remains vigilant, saying he feels confident but not complacent.

Recent Poll Findings

The latest Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey indicates Becerra leads with 28% support. For second place, Steyer has 22% and Hilton 21%. Other candidates lag significantly behind.

The poll was conducted May 27-28 among 1,000 likely voters, with a margin of error of 3 percentage points. Spencer Kimball from Emerson College remarked that while Becerra is the frontrunner, both Steyer and Hilton have paths forward if they successfully engage their demographic bases. Voter mobilization remains crucial, especially for Steyer, who aims to draw support away from Becerra.

Comparison with Other Polls

Becerra’s support rose by 9 points since a mid-May survey, reflecting steady gains for Steyer and Hilton as well. Previous polls indicated tight competition, with the top three candidates separated by a thin margin. A University of California Berkeley poll showed similar results, reinforcing Becerra’s leading position.

Another survey, the PPIC Statewide Survey, also found Becerra in the lead. While the margin between him and Hilton was narrow, it falls within the poll’s margin of error, indicating uncertainty in the final lineup for the general election.

Overall, these findings offer some respite to Democrats, wary of potential vote splits that could allow two Republicans to advance. Nevertheless, the competition remains dynamic as the primary approaches.