Texas Senate Race Heats Up as Ken Paxton Faces Pressure to Debate

For much of his political career, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has sidestepped debates with rivals. This strategy persists in his race for the U.S. Senate, as he has yet to agree to a debate with Democratic opponent James Talarico.

With Election Day approaching, pressure mounts in the tightly contested Texas Senate race. Recent polls show Talarico either narrowly ahead or tied with Paxton, raising hopes for Democrats seeking a Senate majority. Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988.

Paxton, along with most Republican nominees for statewide offices in Texas, seems intent on avoiding debates this election cycle. National polls show President Donald Trump’s declining approval amid the Iran conflict and rising gas prices, affecting Republicans across states.

Talarico, a state lawmaker from Austin, has been calling for debates with Paxton for months. In July, he publicly challenged Paxton to three televised debates, accusing Paxton of dodging reporter questions. Last month, Talarico invited Paxton to debate on Fox News.

Paxton’s campaign initially agreed to debate but objected to some moderators. An agreement seemed close, but nothing was finalized. Paxton has previously avoided debates in his three runs for Texas attorney general.

Notably, Trump and other Republicans have also called for debates, fueling speculation that Paxton might agree to face Talarico, a strong Democratic candidate. Newsweek has reached out to both campaigns for comment and awaits responses.

Impact of Trump’s Involvement

When Talarico halted his campaign events due to illness, Paxton seized the moment to criticize him. At a rally in San Antonio with Trump, Paxton highlighted Talarico’s absence.

This appearance was Trump’s third visit to Texas in under a month, underscoring the state’s emerging battleground status. On his Truth Social platform, Trump urged Talarico to debate Paxton. Talarico quickly agreed, challenging Paxton publicly.

Despite mounting pressure, Paxton has not yet responded to the debate demand. However, he continues criticizing Talarico for his campaign absence.

Strategists Weigh In

Republican strategist Karl Rove warned that refusing to debate could jeopardize Paxton’s Senate bid. Rove argued that failing to debate might cost Paxton the election.

Cal Jillson, a political-science professor at Southern Methodist University, expressed skepticism about Paxton agreeing to debate. Jillson pointed out that incumbents typically avoid debates when leading in polls.

Grant Davis Reeher of Syracuse University noted that both Trump and Rove advocating for debate signifies potential damage if Paxton refuses. Refusal may portray candidates as avoiding transparency.

Costas Panagopoulos, a professor at Northeastern University, added that declining might suggest inability to confront opponents on equal terms. Voters could question Paxton’s qualifications for the Senate, where debate is crucial.

Reeher highlighted potential risks if Paxton debates; his discomfort with the medium could weaken him. If Talarico performs well, undecided voters might sway to his side.

Significance of Debates

Jillson and Reeher agree that while voters expect debates, they rarely penalize candidates who refuse. Voter opinions of Paxton are negative but unlikely to shift significantly. The race will hinge on attitudes toward him and Talarico.

Polls Indicate Close Race

In recent polls, Talarico holds a slender lead. Decision Desk HQ shows him ahead by three points. RealClearPolling gives him a 2.8-point lead. A YouGov poll shows a six-point lead, though only with a three percent margin of error.

A UMass Lowell/YouGov poll indicates a tie between Talarico and Paxton, each at 45 percent support, with a 4.5 percent margin of error. Guidant Polling & Strategy shows Talarico ahead by three points.

Other polls reflect a tightly contested race. A New York Times/Siena College survey and a Fox News poll demonstrate Talarico’s lead.

Newsweek staff, utilizing Martyn, our AI assistant, compiled this article. Contact editors John Fitzpatrick and James Debens for more information.