The Illusion of Ceasefire Between Russia and Ukraine

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Early Sunday morning, former President Donald Trump announced in a post on Truth Social that there was an immediate ‘ENERGY CEASEFIRE’ in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. He asserted that ‘both parties have agreed’ to the ceasefire, urging both Moscow and Kyiv to adhere to it. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, upon hearing the news, expressed that it was unexpected. He remarked to Axios, ‘Please tell us when the ceasefire begins; we are ready and we will accept it.’

Despite the announcement, tensions ensued. The same evening, Russia struck Kharkiv’s Combined Heat and Power Plant No. 5 and a grocery store, resulting in three fatalities and injuries to nearly two dozen, including children. This sequence of actions evoked the image of a Greek tragedy.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov responded to Trump’s announcement by denying any respite for Ukraine. He stated that President Zelensky had not ‘earned’ a peace interval, showcasing a blatant disregard for the notion of ceasefire agreed by Trump.

By Tuesday, Trump publicly acknowledged that no ceasefire agreement existed, saying, ‘They agreed because I said they agreed.’ This was another instance where Putin manipulated Trump as he tried to regain his momentum in the faltering military campaign in Ukraine. The continued interactions and negotiations led to strategic gains for Russia at Trump’s expense. In August 2025, Putin maintained a strong negotiating stance during the Alaska summit, and later in October, talked Trump out of deploying Tomahawk missiles in Ukraine.

Russia’s offers tempted Trump into ineffective compromises. Kirill Dmitriev, Putin’s special envoy in the U.S., persistently attempted to achieve through diplomacy what the Russian military could not accomplish in battle. Dmitriev presented lucrative deals, notably a $14 trillion package for cooperation in energy and various sectors. These offers came with the condition of betraying Ukraine and NATO.

Additional inducements followed, including a proposed Nord Stream deal and the acquisition of Lukoil’s international holdings. The U.S. being embroiled in Iran raised diesel prices, granting Russia leverage to influence Trump. Shortly before the midterms, Trump conceded to lift sanctions and purchase Russian diesel, drawing bipartisan criticism from twelve senators.

Russia continues its aggression by attacking Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, leaving thousands without power and water as winter approaches. Trump’s repeated missteps allow Putin to exploit him. A valuable lesson from Aeschylus’ The Persians resonates: Presumptuous pride leads to calamity, and hastens an eventual harvest of tears.

Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as a military intelligence officer and led the US European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012 to 2014. They are the co-founders of INTREP360 and the INTREP360 Intelligence Report on Substack.