Trafalgar Group Poll Highlights Shifts in South Carolina Republican Gubernatorial Primary

Current Polling and Campaign Reactions

A recent poll by the Trafalgar Group indicates that Representative Nancy Mace is falling behind several competitors in South Carolina’s Republican gubernatorial primary. This development follows President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette, which might influence the race ahead of Tuesday’s primary. Trump’s endorsements are often pivotal among South Carolina Republicans, helping consolidate support in a crowded field.

The poll, conducted from June 2 to 4, shows a competitive race with no candidate leading strongly. Mace’s campaign, contacted by Newsweek, recognized the poll results, which were overseen by Republican pollster Robert Cahaly. A spokesperson for Mace said, “This is what we call a suppression poll. Grassroots are dropping their support of Pam like a hot potato. We think Cahaly just slams his head on a keyboard and puts numbers into a tweet.”

Mace, who began representing South Carolina’s 1st congressional district in 2021, launched her gubernatorial campaign last August, choosing not to seek reelection to Congress. Initially a frontrunner, her campaign is now part of a tight race involving multiple candidates. According to South Carolina election rules, if no candidate secures the 50 percent needed to win, the top two finishers proceed to a runoff election.

What Prediction Markets Say

Prediction markets provide insights into the primary race. On Kalshi, Mace is given under a 4 percent chance of becoming the Republican nominee, whereas Evette has 68 percent and Wilson 27 percent. On Polymarket, Mace’s chances have dropped from 45 percent in December to under 5 percent. Evette’s have risen from 30 percent before Trump’s support to 68 percent, followed by Wilson at 24 percent.

The Epstein Files and the Fracture With Trump

The race dynamic differs from 2024, when Mace and Trump were aligned politically. Mace supported Trump’s presidential campaign, and Trump endorsed her for congressional reelection, recognizing her as a “strong conservative voice” supporting border security, veterans, and the Second Amendment.

Their relationship soured as Mace advocated for public access to classified documents about Jeffrey Epstein, a deceased sex offender. Mace, who has shared her experience of being sexually assaulted as a teenager, criticized the Justice Department’s handling of the Epstein files, including during Trump’s presidency.

Despite some conservatives advocating full release of the files, the topic remained politically sensitive among Republicans. Mace’s public call for transparency set her apart from other candidates who avoided discussing the matter. Following Trump’s endorsement of Evette, Mace commented on social media last Friday: “I know I put the likelihood of an endorsement on the line when I demanded transparency on the Epstein files. I demanded it because you deserved the truth – ALL OF IT – and as a survivor of a corrupt and broken court system, I will always pursue justice for those who deserve it. If sacrificing my values is the price of an endorsement, I will never pay it. South Carolina deserves a Governor who answers to her people, not to the establishment, and not to anyone who believes accountability is negotiable.”

Broader Congressional Fallout

Mace is not alone in facing political fallout due to the Epstein files issue. Republican Representative Thomas Massie led a bipartisan procedure with Democrat Representative Ro Khanna to prompt a vote on the documents’ release. Massie commended Mace, alongside Republican Representative Lauren Boebert and former GOP Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, for their efforts. He noted that while most Republicans voted to release the files, only Mace, Boebert, and Greene backed his original petition, paying a significant price for their stance.

The consequences for opposing the party line on these and related matters have been severe. Massie lost his primary to Trump-endorsed Ed Gallrein. Greene decided against seeking reelection, citing her discord with Trump over the files. Boebert now faces a potential Trump-backed primary challenge after supporting Massie.

What Lies Ahead

South Carolina’s Republican primary is scheduled for June 9. Without a candidate achieving more than 50 percent of the vote, the top two will enter a runoff later in June.

With the race still competitive and many voters undecided, candidates are expected to ramp up their campaigns as Trump’s endorsement and other developments continue to influence the result.