Trump Faces Widespread Approval Decline in Second Term

More than a year into President Donald Trump’s second term, a Newsweek analysis reveals a decline in his approval ratings across the United States. New state-level polling data shows that some of his strongest initial supporters are now less satisfied with his leadership.

Approval Ratings Decline Nationwide

Since returning to office in January 2025, Trump’s net approval ratings have fallen in every state. Surprisingly, even states that traditionally support Republicans show significant drops. Battleground states like Florida, Ohio, and Nevada have shifted to net disapproval.

Though the political map still reflects the partisan divide, the margins are narrower. Data from Civiqs’ online tracking poll, based on over 107,000 responses collected from January 2025 to May 2026, supports these findings. The analysis compares approval data from Trump’s first day in office to the latest estimates, showing trends rather than specific moments in time.

Steep Declines in Key States

The largest drops are in both Republican and battleground states. Key examples include:

• Wyoming: +47 to +22 (down 25 points)
• Kentucky: +23 to 0 (down 23 points)
• Nebraska: +18 to -4 (down 22 points)
• Alaska: +9 to -12 (down 21 points)
• Florida: +9 to -12 (down 21 points)
• Oklahoma: +31 to +10 (down 21 points)
• Nevada: 0 to -20 (down 20 points)
• Ohio: +8 to -11 (down 19 points)
• Utah: +20 to +1 (down 19 points)

Although Wyoming remains Trump’s strongest support base, its margin has decreased sharply. States like Kentucky have moved from solid support to neutrality, indicating fast-changing political landscapes.

Battleground Dynamics Shift

Significant changes are noticeable in swing states. Some states that were balanced or favored Trump have moved to net disapproval:

• Florida: +9 to -12
• Ohio: +8 to -11
• Nevada: 0 to -20
• Nebraska: +18 to -4

Pennsylvania and North Carolina remain competitive but show declines since the start of the term. These trends indicate a growing challenge for Trump in states critical to national elections.

Strongholds Weaken

In deeply conservative states, Trump’s support remains firm but weaker. States like Oklahoma, Idaho, and Tennessee maintain positive ratings yet have lost around 20 points each since January 2025. Wyoming, the most pro-Trump state, has seen its lead cut by more than half. This suggests the base’s strength has diminished but not disappeared.

Democratic States Increase Opposition

In Democratic-leaning states, Trump’s ratings were already low and have declined further. California, New York, and Massachusetts exhibit deeper negative approvals today, although the scale of change is more modest due to initially low starting points.

Understanding the Approval Drop

Across most states, declines are due to equal parts falling approval and rising disapproval. For instance, in Wyoming:

• Approval fell from 72 to 58 (down 14 points)
• Disapproval rose from 25 to 36 (up 11 points)
• Net approval: +47 to +22 (down 25 points)

This simultaneous movement leads to rapid declines in net approval nationwide.

A Familiar Yet Weaker National Map

The national political map maintains its basic structure, with familiar dividing lines but weaker margins. Trump’s strongest regions are still supportive but less robust, and opposition remains strong in historically Democratic states. Many previously supportive or neutral states now show reduced net approval.

White House Perspective

The White House minimizes the polling results, focusing on Trump’s 2024 victory as evidence of broad approval. Spokesperson Davis Ingle cites the nearly 80 million votes Trump received as a mandate for his agenda. The administration stresses its focus on economic issues, including employment, inflation, and housing, while anticipating that public opinions will evolve as policies take effect.