Texas Governor Abbott Leads in Polls Amid Gubernatorial Race Against Hinojosa

Texas Governor Greg Abbott has a six-point lead over Democratic state Representative Gina Hinojosa in the race for governor. A recent poll emerged three months before voters decide who will govern Texas. Abbott seeks a fourth term, while Democrats aim for their first victory since Ann Richards in 1990.

Democrats have targeted Texas as a potential swing state, but success has been elusive. They hope former President Trump’s declining approval may shift momentum. Political analysts say the state’s political climate has shifted somewhat since past gubernatorial races.

“The polling is tighter overall and better demographically for Democrats than in 2022 or 2024,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston.

In 2022, Abbott benefited from anti-Biden sentiment. In 2026, anti-Trump feelings may create challenges. Mark Jones, a politics professor from Rice University, said Democratic candidates differ from prior years, which may favor Republicans.

A Texas Southern University poll of 1,200 likely voters showed Abbott at 49% and Hinojosa at 43%. About 5% were undecided, while Libertarian Pat Dixon received 3%. Abbott’s favorability was 48%, with an unfavorable rating of 51%. Hinojosa’s favorability stood at 37%, with far fewer respondents familiar with her.

Demographic divides are evident. Abbott leads white voters by 24 points, while Hinojosa holds a 14-point lead among Latino voters and a 59-point lead among Black voters. Among women, Hinojosa leads by 11 points, though Abbott holds a significant 24-point advantage among men.

This poll, conducted between July 27-30, has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.

Texas Governor’s Race

The Texas governor race is one of 36 gubernatorial contests nationwide in 2026. Abbott, a staunch conservative, has served since 2014. Winning a fourth term would make him Texas’s longest-serving governor, surpassing Rick Perry. Hinojosa, a lawyer and state representative since 2017, secured the Democratic nomination in March.

Electoral forecasts favor Abbott, though the race is potentially tighter than his 11-point win over Beto O’Rourke in 2022.

“This is shaping up to be a good Democrat year, so any substantial number of Republicans defecting could narrow the margins for Abbott,” said Calvin Jillson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University.

The governor’s race coincides with Texas’s high-profile Senate race. Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico are in a close contest. Democrats need to flip four Senate seats to gain chamber control, with Texas considered an opportunity. Recent polls show a tight race between Paxton, endorsed by Trump, and Talarico, a state representative since 2018.

In the gubernatorial race, nearly 89% of Abbott supporters back Paxton, while almost all Hinojosa supporters plan to support Talarico. Jones noted the anti-Trump sentiment and prominent Senate race create a challenging environment for Abbott.

Other Polls and Fundraising

Most polls indicate Abbott leads, though by a narrower margin than in 2022. A Texas Public Opinion Research poll found Abbott leading by three points, with 10% undecided.

Demographic analysis shows Hinojosa leading among independents and moderates, as well as holding strong support among Black and Latino voters. Abbott has an edge among white and college-educated voters.

Abbott benefits from strong name recognition and significant fundraising. He entered the race with $106 million, while Hinojosa is less known and has fewer resources. Texans for Greg Abbott has spent over $54.5 million, with over $67.2 million on hand. Hinojosa’s campaign has spent nearly $4 million and has about $3 million available.

Jones highlighted the benefit Democrats get from shared funding with the Senate race. “An infusion of $100 million into Texas Democrats’ efforts will support both Talarico and Hinojosa,” he said.