Maine’s Second Congressional District Race: LePage vs. Dunlap

Vice President JD Vance highlighted President Donald Trump’s economic policies in Brewer, Maine. He appeared alongside former Republican Governor Paul LePage, who aims to make a political return in the midterm elections. LePage’s opponent in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District is Democrat Matthew Dunlap. The district is currently represented by Jared Golden, a moderate Democrat, who is retiring at the end of his term.

The district generally favors Republicans, though it has supported Democrats like Golden in the past, reflecting Maine’s independent nature. Republicans view LePage as having a solid chance to win the seat because of its conservative leaning, evidenced by its support for Trump by 9 points in the 2024 election. However, despite Trump’s declining approval ratings nationally, Democrats consider the race competitive as Golden has previously secured victories there.

“A guy like Paul LePage. He is not a go-along-to-get-along politician. He is an independent-minded guy, but he is independent for you. There is one thing I know, that Paul cares about and that’s fighting hard for his people every single day. We’ve got to send Paul LePage to Congress,” Vance said at the event.

The race stands out as among the most competitive of the midterms. LePage is well known from his tenure as governor from 2011 to 2019. Dunlap, currently state auditor, has served as secretary of state.

Harry Burke, Dunlap’s campaign manager, expressed concerns to Newsweek, stating that Mainers recognize the “disaster Paul LePage would be in Congress.” Burke criticized LePage’s support for Medicaid cuts, tariffs, and foreign policy decisions. He noted efforts by national Republicans to support LePage’s campaign might not succeed as Maine voters prefer Dunlap, who aims to lower costs and safeguard social programs.

Newsweek contacted LePage’s campaign for comments. Recent independent polling is limited but available data from February indicates a tight race. A University of New Hampshire survey showed LePage with a 47% to 46% lead over Dunlap, within the margin of error. Another poll by Tulchin Research, an internal Dunlap poll, showed Dunlap slightly ahead, with 49% to LePage’s 48%.

A co/efficient poll, sponsored by the NRCC, gave LePage a more significant advantage, showing him leading by 10 points. Prediction markets also favor LePage, giving him a 61% chance on Kalshi and a 56% chance on Polymarket to win the seat.

Maine’s Second District has become more conservative over the years, having supported Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, but voting for Trump in subsequent elections. It includes both rural northern areas and cities like Augusta, Bangor, and Lewiston. These cities, along with liberal coastal regions, have kept Republican gains in check, aiding Golden’s previous successes.

Elsewhere in Maine, the state remains Democratic-leaning. Trump never won Maine, losing it by 7 points in 2024 despite winning the national vote. However, Republican Senator Susan Collins continues to win due to her popularity and bipartisan image. This year, Collins faces Democrat Troy Jackson in what may be a challenging reelection given Trump’s unpopularity in the state.

The GOP views 2026 as an opportunity for gains. If LePage flips the seat, it could mark one of the few Republican pick-ups aside from those due to redistricting. With the seat being one of the most Republican-held by a Democrat, Golden’s retirement further bolsters Republican hopes.

Despite this, Democrats are investing in the seat. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced support for Dunlap, having backed Joe Baldacci in the primary. Dunlap, with a more progressive stance, has the endorsement of California Representative Ro Khanna.

Both candidates, Dunlap and LePage, are working to appeal to voters in the months leading up to the election. Current forecasts give LePage an edge, with the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rating the race as Likely Republican.