Darline Graham’s Nomination in South Carolina Senate Race Intensifies Election Battle

Republican Nominee Darline Graham

Darline Graham has secured the Republican nomination in South Carolina’s Senate race following the special primary election. With the endorsement of Donald Trump, Graham triumphed over Representative Ralph Norman, obtaining around 52% of the vote. The Associated Press reported the race result at 9:01 p.m. ET Tuesday.

This special election comes after Lindsey Graham’s passing due to an aortic dissection on July 11. Lindsey Graham had served the state in the Senate since 2003 and was up for reelection this year. Following his death, Republicans needed to select a new nominee. Acting on Trump’s recommendation, Republican Governor Henry McMaster appointed Graham’s sister, Darline Graham, to occupy the seat for the remainder of the current term.

Democratic Opposition from Annie Andrews

Democrat Annie Andrews was confirmed as her party’s nominee in June and is preparing for the November general election. Although South Carolina has historically favored Republicans, Democrats view the forthcoming election as an opportunity. Their optimism stems from nationwide declines in the president’s approval ratings, linked to economic concerns, including cost-of-living issues.

In a previous interview with Newsweek, Andrews expressed confidence in a potential shift, citing increased fundraising and grassroots support as the foundation for a competitive campaign. “We’ve had a steady increase in our fundraising. We’re feeling really good about the grassroots aspect of our fundraising and building our war chest for the Republican primary,” Andrews shared.

Polling and Prediction Markets

Polling data remains sparse in the wake of Lindsey Graham’s death, though Andrews’ campaign released an internal poll indicating a close contest. No independent polling results have been published to either affirm or contest these findings.

Prior to Graham’s death, an internal poll by Andrews’ campaign showed a narrow race with Graham leading by a 3-point margin, according to a survey of 700 likely voters conducted by Impact Research from June 17 to June 22, 2026.

Prediction markets favor Republicans heavily, with an 88% chance of winning the seat on Kalshi and an 87% chance on Polymarket as of Tuesday evening. These markets allow traders to engage in contracts linked to political outcomes, gauging current sentiments though not necessarily predicting the exact results.

Political Climate in South Carolina

South Carolina remains challenging territory for Democrats, holding onto its Republican leanings for decades. At the presidential level, the state last supported a Democratic candidate in 1976. The political landscape has favored Republicans, delivering them double-digit victories in recent elections.

Despite attempts to shift the political balance, Democrats have faced consistent setbacks. In 2020, Democrat Jaime Harrison made headlines with a substantial campaign against Graham but finished approximately 10 percentage points behind. Even during 2018’s “blue wave” election cycle, Republican Governor Henry McMaster won by 8 points.

Nonetheless, Democrats remain hopeful for the 2026 environment, where Trump’s decreased approval ratings present potential advantages. National surveys underscore an increase in Trump’s disapproval, reaching a record high, exemplified by a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll citing 65% disapproval versus 33% approval.

In South Carolina, Civiqs polling reflects a 42% approval rate for Trump, contrasted by 51% disapproval among residents as of Monday. Democrats perceive Trump’s approval troubles as a chance to broaden their reach and engage voters in traditionally conservative areas, although forecasters anticipate the state will remain Republican-dominated post-November midterms.