Sununu Leads Pappas in New Hampshire Senate Race Polls

Democratic Representative Chris Pappas has experienced a second polling setback against former Senator John Sununu in New Hampshire’s U.S. Senate race. This contest is crucial for Democrats in the upcoming 2026 midterm elections.

Primary Contenders and Their Backgrounds

Pappas and Sununu are regarded as leading candidates to secure their party nominations next week in a bid to replace retiring Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen in November. New Hampshire, having supported Vice President Kamala Harris by roughly 3 points in 2024, is seen by Republicans as a potential win due to Sununu’s candidacy. Sununu previously held the Senate seat from 2003 to 2009.

Although Democrats believe Pappas may be well-positioned to win, supported by voter dissatisfaction with former President Donald Trump, recent polls indicate Sununu slightly leading. Experts still hold a minor advantage for Democrats, but these polls present challenges for the party as they strive for a Senate majority in November.

“Voters know the difference between a candidate who hides and one who fights,” stated Pappas’ campaign manager, Rachel Petri, emphasizing Pappas’ commitment to engaging New Hampshire’s electorate.

Current Polling Data

Recent polling results show Sununu leading Pappas. Fabrizio, Lee & Associates presented a statistical tie, with Sununu at 37 percent and Pappas at 36 percent. The survey, conducted among 600 likely voters from August 27-30, reported a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

A University of New Hampshire poll similarly showed Sununu with a lead of 45 percent compared to Pappas’ 43 percent during August 20-24. This survey featured 1,878 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points. Additionally, Pappas slightly led former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown in the GOP primary polls.

Primary Election and Candidates’ Campaigns

The New Hampshire primary is scheduled for September 8. Sununu, battling against Brown, maintains a significant lead, largely due to support from the GOP and endorsement by Trump. Meanwhile, Pappas is competing against scientist Karishma Manzur, also leading in primary polls.

Pappas and Sununu have focused their campaigns on affordability and living costs. Pappas has emphasized healthcare and vowed to tackle corruption, while Sununu has criticized the war in Iran more than Brown.

Prediction Markets and Senate Implications

Prediction markets favor Democrats in New Hampshire’s Senate race, granting them an over 80 percent chance of victory. However, Republicans gaining control in New Hampshire would further stress the Democrats’ Senate challenges, needing to secure four additional seats for a majority.

Facing a Senate map with few swing states, Democrats must target GOP-held seats in Maine and North Carolina, along with more conservative regions like Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas. Should New Hampshire swing to the GOP, Democrats would need to win three difficult states for a majority.

New Hampshire’s Political Landscape

New Hampshire, traditionally supporting Republican governors, leans Democratic in federal elections. It has voted for GOP presidents only through 2000 but consistently backs Democratic Senate candidates. Although considered moderate, the state remains crucial due to its mixed political streak.

Democrats rely heavily on southern cities like Manchester and Concord, although these regions are not overwhelmingly Democratic. Suburbs and towns lean more Republican, while college towns like Durham and Keene support Democrats. The state’s decisive factors include dense urban demographics and independent voters, essential for either candidate.

According to the secretary of state’s office, as of August 3, 351,815 residents were non-affiliated with either party, while there were 299,976 registered Republicans and 247,069 registered Democrats.

The article’s information comes from Newsweek editors Jason Lemon and Dave Siminoff.