Economic Impact of ICE Raids on Chicago Commerce

A recent report highlights a significant economic impact from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids in Chicago. The study, conducted by the University of Illinois Chicago, indicates that immigration crackdowns starting in early 2025 have drained over $1.26 billion from local businesses.

The researchers utilized anonymous cellphone GPS data to monitor movement between immigrant and non-immigrant neighborhoods throughout Cook County. Their findings reveal that regular traffic between these areas diminished sharply following President Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20, 2025. This change happened amid widespread rumors and ensuing ICE sweeps targeting Chicago for immediate raids.

Professor Matt Wilson, a co-author of the study, emphasized that economic effects were felt well beyond immigrant neighborhoods. The report estimates that changes in consumer mobility cost non-immigrant retail shops and restaurants around $1.26 billion, while the state of Illinois lost approximately $107 million in tax revenue. “We observed a 9% decrease in retail visits and a 10% decline in restaurant attendance, persisting for about a year,” Wilson conveyed. “These changes have not reversed, as people permanently adjusted their behavior.”

In the Little Village neighborhood, a hub for Mexican immigrants, businesses saw significant impacts. For small businesses, a sustained 10% drop in foot traffic over a year is financially devastating. This challenges the notion of isolation within immigrant communities. “Many perceive Latino and immigrant communities as insular,” Wilson remarked. “However, these communities are intertwined with the broader economy, frequently making trips across the county.”

“People are more than afraid, they’re panicking,” a Chicago waitress named Caridad mentioned, declining to provide her last name due to fear of ICE targeting. This intense fear was prevalent during the inaugural period.

The administration’s crackdowns have led to hundreds of thousands of arrests across the nation. The population in immigration detention centers has reached a record high of around 65,000 individuals. Despite criticism, the White House supports the strict enforcement approach. White House spokesperson Lauren Bis stated, “Removing these criminals makes communities safer.” However, ICE statistics indicate approximately 70% of detainees have no criminal convictions.

This report is among various studies showing economic disruptions from large-scale immigration enforcement. The Brookings Institution has noted a 1.7 percentage point decline in consumer spending in states with high enforcement activities. In Minneapolis, ICE enforcement sweeps have caused nearly $700 million in economic damage, affecting small businesses with over $81 million in revenue losses in January alone.