Saudi Arabia Faces Complex Middle East Challenges Amid Iran Tensions

Saudi Arabia plays a crucial role in the Arab and Islamic worlds, especially during the current Middle East crisis. The Kingdom faces a multi-front challenge from Iran and its allies. Since the U.S. and Israel initiated conflict with Iran on February 28, Saudi Arabia has encountered attacks from Iran, Iraqi militias, and Yemen’s Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthi movement.

Recently, the southern front has become increasingly volatile. Ansar Allah has intensified cross-border assaults against Saudi Arabia while gaining territory against Riyadh-supported government forces in one of the most severe clashes since the April 2022 ceasefire in Yemen’s civil war.

The conflict could expand further. Pakistan, under a recent defense pact with Saudi Arabia and Turkey, has signaled support. The U.S. and Israel have a track record of responding militarily to Ansar Allah’s attacks, like those unleashed following the Gaza conflict outbreak in October 2023.

“For Saudi Arabia, this means its national interests are facing greater risks,” said Ahmed Nagi, a senior Yemen analyst at the International Crisis Group.

Ansar Allah’s seizure of Mokha port is significant, bringing it closer to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical trade pathway. This adds pressure on Saudi Arabia to reconsider its strategy. Riyadh has two options: either negotiate and address some Houthi demands, risking a weaker position, or escalate militarily, consuming vast resources.

Historical Context

Saudi Arabia’s interventions in Yemen have been complex with mixed results. In the 1960s, it struggled to assist royalists against an Egypt-backed uprising, eventually recognizing a moderate revolutionary government. The direct intervention against the Houthi takeover of Sanaa resulted in stalled insurgency but control over a significant portion of Yemen.

A ceasefire since April 2022 survived regional turmoil, though Ansar Allah has attacked Israel and shipping following Hamas’ attack on October 7, 2023. Yet internal Saudi-Yemeni lines remained stable until recent escalations.

The current U.S.-Israeli war with Iran tests the region. Iran attacked multiple regional targets, including Saudi territories. A Saudi airstrike on Sanaa International Airport intensified tensions, leading to renewed conflicts.

New Regional Security Dynamics

Saudi Arabia traditionally looks to the U.S. for support, but with shared focus on Iran, new alliances are forming. The Mecca Accord is not merely about the Houthis but part of a broader security framework linking Saudi Arabia with Pakistan and Turkey. According to Nawaf Obaid, former adviser to Saudi ambassadors, this coalition aims to deter Iran and balances regional power dynamics.

The Consequences of Escalation

Being central in this new Middle East order makes Saudi Arabia a primary target. Obaid emphasized how transformations within Saudi Arabia cannot be jeopardized by Houthi threats. Saudi Arabia’s role as the top global crude exporter and central OPEC power makes it indispensable in deterring economic disruption.

“If any attacks will be conducted by Saudi and the U.S. and Pakistan against Yemen, I believe that Yemen for sure will close the Red Sea for all the shipping belonging to these countries,” warned Sanaa-based journalist Hussein Albukhaiti.

Higher stakes exist with potential interventions by Pakistan and Turkey. Ansar Allah could inflict severe disruption on Saudi infrastructure, impacting global energy markets.

Challenges Ahead for Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia faces pressure as regional instability impacts its borders. Kristian Ulrichsen, a fellow for the Middle East at the Baker Institute, noted the drop in Saudi oil production to its lowest since 1990, with exports hitting a 13-year low.

The closure of key maritime routes further exacerbates domestic challenges. Prolonged conflict could derail Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030 plan aimed at economic diversification, particularly in tourism and sports development.

Saudi Arabia’s current strategy lacks clarity on effectively deterring the Houthi threat, raising questions about possible future steps in managing the crisis.