Tight Florida Senate Race: Ashley Moody vs. Angie Nixon

Florida’s political landscape is under intense scrutiny as Republican Senator Ashley Moody’s campaign warns of a close race with Democrat Angie Nixon. Two recent opinion polls indicate the contest is a ‘dead heat’ as both vie for the seat once held by Marco Rubio. If Nixon, a current state representative, secures this seat, it would mark a significant win for the Democrats, who aim to gain Senate control in the upcoming November midterms. Florida’s last statewide Democratic victory occurred in 2018, with Republicans holding a substantial voter registration advantage.

Campaign Dynamics

The Moody campaign has raised alarms about the race’s tightness, highlighting two recent polls from St. Pete Polls and Change Research. In their communication to supporters, Moody’s team emphasized: ‘Two polls. Two dead heats.’ They point to the Trump-endorsed Moody being in a virtual tie with Nixon in what is described as 2026’s biggest Senate special election for Rubio’s long-held seat.

Poll Analysis

The St. Pete Polls survey sampled 913 likely Florida voters, revealing Moody with a narrow lead of 0.4 percentage points over Nixon, at 45.2 percent versus 44.8 percent. This poll, conducted from September 15 to 17, utilized automated phone calls and SMS messages. It carries a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points. The results showed Nixon leading among independents and younger voters, while Moody held an edge with non-Hispanic white voters and seniors. However, these demographic breakdowns warrant caution due to their small sample sizes.

Change Research provided another perspective, surveying 1,107 likely voters for Freedom Project USA between September 7 and 9. This poll found both candidates tied at 47 percent, while President Trump had a net favorability of minus ten. It had a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points.

Conversely, a poll by Quantus Insights surveyed 733 likely voters and showed Moody ahead with 50 percent compared to 43 percent support for Nixon. This survey had a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points and was conducted from September 8 to 10.

Wider Implications

These poll results spotlight the competitive nature of the current race despite the historical trend favoring Republicans in Florida. As of late July, Republicans had a registration advantage of approximately 1.5 million voters, with Trump securing Florida by a 13-point margin in 2024. Republican Senate candidates historically outperformed Democrats by significant margins in previous elections.

Despite this backdrop, the election analysis website Decision Desk HQ predicts Moody has a 78 percent chance of winning. Further, a RealClearPolling average suggests Moody leads by five points, with 48.3 percent to Nixon’s 43.3 percent.

Recent Developments

Moody ascended to the Senate in January 2025 after Florida Governor Ron DeSantis appointed her, following Rubio’s selection as Trump’s Secretary of State. In an unexpected primary result, Nixon defeated Alexander Vindman, who heavily outspent her, to secure the Democratic nomination. Nixon’s victory sets the stage for her face-off with Moody.

The current Senate composition of 53 Republicans versus 47 Democrats means losing the seat would significantly impact Trump’s latter half of his term.