Laura Loomer’s Prediction on Midterm Elections and its Implications

Laura Loomer, a conservative influencer and ally of Donald Trump, has predicted disappointment for November’s midterm elections. Democrats aim to gain control of both the Senate and the House. Losing these would hinder Trump’s legislative power during the last two years of his second term in office.

In a social media post on X, Loomer expressed: “November is going to be a bust. We tried. But there’s only so much you can do.” This statement came as polls indicated the Democrats lead in the generic congressional vote ahead of the midterm elections. Senate seats in traditionally Republican areas, such as Texas and Alaska, are possibly vulnerable.

Newsweek sought comments from Loomer and the Republican Party but is awaiting responses.

Who Is Laura Loomer?

Loomer is a notable conservative activist and self-proclaimed “investigative journalist” with a significant following of 1.9 million on X. She is the host of ‘Loomer Unleashed’ on Rumble and has participated in Trump campaign events during the 2024 presidential election. Trump referred to her as a “supporter” and “free spirit”, acknowledging her political significance.

At an Iowa rally in January 2024, Trump described Loomer as “politically important.” In her recent X post, Loomer criticized the Islamic faith, stating Americans will end up understanding the threat of communism and Islam.

The Southern Poverty Law Center, focusing on racial justice, called Loomer “an anti-Muslim bigot and conspiracy theorist” in 2022.

Loomer also showed frustration over Trump’s meeting with NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani at Gracie Mansion. Trump praised Mamdani’s potential as a mayor, which displeased some conservatives.

On X, Loomer, expressing loyalty to Trump, stated: “I am a die-hard Trump supporter and today I feel demoralized because Mamdani is a full-blown communist jihadist. He is the spiritual leader of the communists in America and met with the President today in NYC less than 45 days before the midterms.” Mamdani, who identifies as a social democrat, denied supporting global jihad during a 2025 debate.

Polling Trends

Nationwide polling from RealClearPolling, conducted between September 2 and 20, showed Democrats leading by 8.5 percentage points in a generic congressional vote, with 50.5 percent support compared to 42 percent for Republicans. During this period, an average approval rating for Trump showed -18.5 percentage points, with 58.6 percent disapproving versus 40.1 percent approving.

A survey by NBC News involving 1,000 registered voters from September 11 to 15 showed Democrats leading by five points. A Quantus Insights poll of 1,389 likely voters from September 15 to 18 indicated an eight-point lead for Democrats.

An American Research Group poll of 1,100 adults, conducted between September 16 and 20, found Trump’s approval rating at 29 percent, marking his first term below 30 percent. The margin of error was plus/minus three percentage points.

A New York Times/Siena University poll of 1,503 likely voters, between September 8 and 13, indicated Democrats are trusted more on seven key policy areas: health care, immigration, deficit, economy, cost of living, foreign wars, and the Israel-Palestine conflict. Republicans held a narrow lead in artificial intelligence.

Decision Desk HQ analytics, updated on September 21, shows Democrats with a 70 percent chance of securing the House. However, the Senate race is tighter with a 52 percent probability of Democrat victory. Prediction market Kalshi gives Democratic candidate State Representative Talarico a 59 percent chance of defeating GOP Attorney General Ken Paxton for a Texas Senate seat.

An AARP survey recently found Democrat Mary Peltola leading Republican Senator Dan Sullivan in Alaska with 46 percent to 41 percent support. This poll involved 800 likely voters, conducted over September 8 to September 11 with a margin of error of plus/minus 3.5 percentage points.

Impact of Foreign Policy on Elections

Mark Shanahan, an American politics expert at the University of Surrey, argues Trump’s Iran conflict has hurt Republican chances. According to Shanahan: “Foreign policy doesn’t usually win U.S. elections but can lose them. The GOP faces Trump’s Iranian war choice, denying the issues it causes. Economic concerns affect Americans, and Trump’s choices lead to price rises, negatively impacting local issues of affordability.”

He noted Republicans’ slight advantage is the disorganized Democratic opposition lacking a unified alternative. Though Trump isn’t on the ballot, he remains central to the election.

Newsweek spoke with Dafydd Townley from the University of Portsmouth on U.S. political history. Townley mentioned: “Trump owns the primaries but can’t overcome living costs, foreign policy errors, and a Supreme Court repeatedly halting his election maneuvers. Voters might hand Democrats control, possibly leading to legislative stalemates and potential government shutdowns in the next Congress.”

Newsweek editors John Fitzpatrick and James Debens can be contacted for further inquiries on this story.