Texas Senate Race Heats Up as Turnout Becomes Key Factor

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The Texas Senate race is in full swing, with Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico neck and neck. Turnout will be crucial in determining the outcome. Paxton benefits from Texas’s overall Republican leanings, while Talarico gains support from economic concerns and perceptions of his character.

More Democrats indicate they will definitely vote, helping Talarico in the final weeks. An increase in Republican voter turnout could shift the dynamics significantly.

Paxton’s Support Base

Paxton’s supporters back him mainly because he is the GOP nominee or they oppose Talarico. Supporting President Trump is also a strong motivation among Paxton’s voters.

Talarico’s Strengths

Economic factors weigh heavily on Texas voters. The rising cost of living is a major concern, with most voters feeling the pinch of higher prices. Among these voters, Talarico leads Paxton. Personal character is significant for Talarico’s supporters more than Paxton’s. Talarico captures 5% of Republican-identifying voters and 9% of those who usually avoid Democrats but choose to vote for him this time.

Paxton’s Edge

Texas sees more support for Trump’s deportation program than recent national polls, giving Paxton an advantage. Cultural and lifestyle perceptions also influence Republican voters who view Talarico’s policies as a threat, while Democrats feel similarly about Paxton’s policies. In a state where many don’t identify as liberal, half view Talarico as “very liberal,” influencing their choice for Paxton.

Demographic Dynamics

Texas has more Republicans than Democrats. Talarico needs strong support from independents, some GOP voters, or new voters to make up the numbers. Younger voters, who strongly support him, must turn out in large numbers. Historically, younger voter turnout rates are lower than older voters. Latino voters, who shifted toward Trump in 2024, now mostly back Talarico. They feel higher prices have impacted them and question Paxton’s character for the Senate role.

Governor Race

Incumbent Greg Abbott leads over Democrat Gina Hinojosa in the governor’s race, securing support from 7% of Talarico voters. The CBS News/YouGov survey used a representative sample of 1,492 registered Texas voters and was conducted from October 8 to 16, 2026. Demographics like gender, age, race, and education were weighted based on Census data and 2024 presidential vote. The margin of error stands at ± 3.4 points for registered voters and ± 3.5 points for likely voters.