Rising Wildfire Risks and Mitigation Strategies in the U.S.

As temperatures increase and development continues, the frequency of structures damaged or destroyed by wildfires is on track to triple by mid-century in the U.S. A recent study highlights the importance of making homes and properties less vulnerable to wildfires. Cost-effective strategies can help reduce the risk of losing homes to these fires.

The 2026 Western Fire Season

The 2026 wildfire season was marked by low mountain snowpack, early snowmelt, and extreme warmth in the West. Even before the record-hot summer intensified drought conditions, fires were already igniting. In June, Colorado’s Aspen Acres Fire destroyed hundreds of structures. In July, the fast-moving Knowles Fire in Colorado resulted in the deaths of four firefighters. By August, wind-driven fires in Spokane, Washington, damaged over 800 homes, prompting mass evacuations.

In Colorado, summer monsoon rains aided firefighters, but lightning continued to ignite flames. Despite some reprieves, Colorado fires burned more than 318,000 acres by late October, nearly double the annual average since 2000. Nationally, the area burned was well above average. The U.S. spent 48 consecutive days at Preparedness Level 5, the highest firefighting resource alert level, compared to a 10-year average of 25 days annually.

Reasons for Rising Fire Risk

While fire is a natural part of ecosystems, a century of fire suppression has led to an accumulation of dry vegetation in forests. Rising temperatures from human activities have increased the rate of moisture evaporation from the land, drying soils and vegetation further. This drying nearly doubled the area burned in western forests from 1984 to 2015 compared to conditions without human-caused climate change. As more people live near wildland areas, the risk of fires reaching neighborhoods rises. Human activity has also extended the fire season, with activities like power lines, vehicles, and campfires sparking fires year-round.

These factors have dramatically increased the annual area burned in the western U.S. since 2000. Fast-growing fires can overwhelm emergency response capabilities. A 2024 study showed that “fast fires” accounted for 78% of structures destroyed despite comprising only 2.7% of fires analyzed, while 61% of reported firefighting costs were due to these incidents.

More Homes in Harm’s Way

The increasing number of people and buildings in fire-prone areas raises the risk of fire damage. Development in wildfire-prone regions expanded tenfold between 1945 and 2015, increasing human exposure and introducing more ignition sources. Without action to reduce wildfire risk, the annual number of damaged or destroyed structures could nearly triple by mid-century, potentially reaching 449,000 structures lost from 2026 to 2060.

The study found about one-third of neighborhoods at future risk are low-income communities, where residents may struggle to afford protective measures and recover after fires.

How to Lower Your Wildfire Risk

Actions today can impact future losses. Using Class A fire-resistant roofs and ember-resistant vents can reduce the likelihood of homes igniting. Removing flammable debris from around buildings reduces fire spread risk. Community programs often help low-income homeowners mitigate fire risk affordably.

Constructing wildfire-resilient homes can be more affordable than assumed. Meeting Colorado fire code protection levels increased construction costs by only 0.6% and 4.2%. Access to low-cost materials and education can further reduce costs.

Beyond individual measures, prescribed burning and controlled forest thinning can alter fire behavior before it reaches settlements. Utilities can enhance infrastructure to lower ignition risks and minimize preventive power shut-offs. Insurance firms can offer incentives for measurable risk reduction, aiding in coverage continuity.

These strategies benefit from mutual reinforcement. The likelihood of losing a home to wildfire depends on building construction, its immediate surroundings, and the broader community context. Tailoring strategies to the specific environmental, social, and economic conditions of each community is essential as wildfire threats intensify.

Virginia Iglesias, Earth Lab Director, University of Colorado Boulder. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.