Zelenskyy Plans Election and Referendum Amid Efforts for Peace with Russia

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is reportedly preparing to announce both a presidential election and a referendum regarding a potential peace agreement with Russia. This announcement is anticipated for February 24, marking the fourth anniversary of Russia’s comprehensive invasion of Ukraine.

According to sources cited by The Financial Times, including Ukrainian and European officials involved in the planning, both the presidential election, in which Zelenskyy aims to seek re-election, and a nationwide referendum could occur by May 15. The plan suggests that Ukraine might risk losing proposed U.S. security guarantees if these events do not happen by the specified date. Historically, U.S.-imposed deadlines have lapsed quietly, but American officials are reportedly exerting significant pressure on Ukraine this time, given the looming November midterm elections.

A photo showcases a ballot box labeled for voters with high temperatures, situated at a polling station during Ukraine’s local elections in Rubizhne, Luhansk Region in October 2020.

The Financial Times points out that the timeline’s feasibility is complicated due to substantial disagreements between Moscow and Kyiv over key territorial issues, particularly the control over the Donbas region and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power facility. Further complicating the situation, Ukraine’s parliament must amend its laws, given that national elections are currently prohibited under martial law conditions.

Zelenskyy has consistently emphasized that decisions about the timing and format of any elections rest solely with Ukraine and its citizens, dismissing any notion of the Kremlin influencing the process. In detailed posts on platform X in December, he asserted that the feasibility of holding elections depends on two critical factors: security and the legislative framework.

Voting, according to Zelenskyy, should be conducted only in territory controlled by Ukraine and must enable participation from soldiers protecting the nation. He clarified that elections could not occur in areas occupied by Russia due to numerous concerns about the execution and fairness of such elections.

The Ukrainian President also indicated that a ceasefire, at least throughout the election or referendum period, may be required to ensure secure circumstances, including protected airspace and the involvement of international observers.

A woman casts her ballot at a mobile polling station during early voting in Russia’s presidential election in Donetsk, a region currently occupied by Russian forces as of March 2024.

A report from The Associated Press highlighted an aim from Washington for the conflict to conclude by June. The information emerged following trilateral discussions held in Abu Dhabi in early February between the United States, Russia, and Ukraine. These talks, although leading to modest progress, resulted in a 314-person prisoner exchange, marking the first such swap after a five-month pause.

U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff remarked that both Washington and Moscow agreed to reestablish a military-to-military dialogue, describing this channel as “crucial to achieving and maintaining peace.” The trilateral discussions are set to continue in the coming weeks as delegations report back to their respective capitals.