Military Fraternity’s Influence on Iran’s Leadership

Decision-making in Iran is predominantly influenced by a select group linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). This group holds significant sway in the country’s internal politics and strategic directions.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who led Iran for 37 years, was assassinated by Israel on February 28th, marking the start of the conflict with the Islamic Republic. His son, Mojtaba Khamenei, succeeded him. However, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s impact as a leader is unmatched and deeply ingrained.

Senior Iranian officials assert that Mojtaba Khamenei, now 56, oversees crucial matters. Yet, experts note that critical decisions are influenced by a select group of individuals predominantly consisting of senior figures within the IRGC, both current and former. This decision-making elite is not representative of the Guards as a conventional organization but is a group bonded by their shared history.

The core experience of this group centers around the tumultuous eight-year war between Iran and Iraq, starting in 1980. The IRGC, established in 1979 to protect the revolution and its leader, elevated these commanders to generals in their late 20s or early 30s. The war and Western backing of Iraq fueled their conviction that Iran must chart its own course, regardless of repercussions.

Post-war, these individuals assumed control of Iran’s intelligence and security apparatus. Many have personal ties to Mojtaba Khamenei, developed during his tenure leading his father’s office. These figures are recognized as some of the most hardline within Iran, not only in their dedication to perpetuating the Islamic revolution but also in their endorsement of harsh measures governing the nation’s security and intelligence operations.