Baltimore’s Approach to Reducing Violence Yields Significant Results

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Five years ago, Baltimore faced over 300 homicides annually. Today, both homicides and nonfatal shootings have decreased by approximately 60%. Since September 2022, Baltimore’s homicide rate has steadily declined, with the city recording 133 homicides in 2025, the lowest in nearly five decades. According to a new working paper by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Baltimore’s reduction in violence outpaced other cities by about 25% without increased arrests.

This transformation required a strategic shift. For years, Baltimore’s attempts to combat violence relied heavily on arrests. During the peak of zero-tolerance policing, the city made up to 100,000 arrests annually in a population of around 600,000. This approach eroded trust in the government and failed to reduce violence effectively. Although enforcement plays a role in public safety, aggressive policing alone caused harm in non-white communities without reducing violent crime.

In 2022, a shift in focus prioritized violence reduction. Baltimore implemented the Group Violence Reduction Strategy, emphasizing that violence connects to a small number of people, groups, places, and conflicts. Data revealed that less than 2% of residents linked to groups were responsible for up to 75% of severe violent acts. This information refocused efforts on the individuals and conflicts causing the most harm.

The strategy begins with in-person outreach led by trusted community figures. The core message is clear: real help is available, but continued violence will prompt a focused response. Those opting for help receive life coaching, job training, education, housing, and relocation assistance when necessary. Persistent violent offenders face accountability through police and judicial partners.

Equally important, Baltimore developed a service infrastructure capable of reaching individuals previously visible only through enforcement. This combination of targeted focus, support, and accountability achieved measurable results. In the Western District, where the strategy began, homicides and nonfatal shootings fell by about one-third in the first 18 months. There was no displacement to nearby neighborhoods, nor an increase in minor arrests. Over 94% of those accepting support have not become victims again.

Past attempts had failed due to poor implementation, not flawed strategy. This time, Baltimore applied a deliberate, five-year plan, starting with the historically most violent Western District and expanding only when preparedness allowed. This approach required patience, criticism from skeptics, and resilience against calls for faster results.

Violence reduction demands active management and coordination. Every week, police, prosecutors, outreach workers, service providers, community partners, and city agencies review incidents, identify emerging risks, and coordinate responses. Community involvement was essential as residents and grassroots leaders contributed from the start, recognizing that those closest to the problem hold key insights for solutions.

“Cities that employ focused, partnership-based strategies, managed effectively and sustained beyond election cycles, see success,” research in other cities suggests.

Baltimore’s priority has been to decrease violence while minimizing harm to the broader community. The city paired legitimate consequences with genuine offers of support and concentrated enforcement on the few responsible for the most damage rather than entire neighborhoods. Trusted community voices remained central to this work.

The impact is evident citywide. Families feel safer, young people find necessary support, and new businesses emerge in revitalized areas. Though the task remains, Baltimore’s progress exemplifies how government can solve difficult issues by remaining focused and responsive to evidence, forming strong partnerships, and aligning infrastructure with its values. The large lesson from Baltimore is clear: cities need not choose between accountability and support. They can construct a system to achieve both with dedication and focused effort.

Brandon M. Scott, the 52nd mayor of Baltimore, has driven historic reductions in violence alongside major investments in education, recreation and parks, and affordable housing. Anthony A. Braga, Ph.D., is the Jerry Lee Professor of Criminology and director of the Crime and Justice Policy Lab at the University of Pennsylvania.