President Donald Trump stated on May 11 in the Oval Office that Americans can expect gasoline prices to decrease after the war with Iran concludes. At that time, the national average for a gallon of regular gas was $4.52. However, energy experts do not share the president’s optimism. Analysts predict that U.S. gas prices are unlikely to return to pre-war levels by the end of the year, even if the Middle East conflict ends immediately.
Before the Iran conflict, the U.S. national average gas price was $2.98 per gallon. Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at Oil Price Information Service (OPIS), suggests that it might not be until the second half of 2027 before prices reach those levels again, according to Newsweek.
Current Gas Price Situation
Gas prices had been declining leading up to February 28, prior to U.S. and Israeli joint strikes on Iran, prompting comments from the White House on economic benefits for American families. But the onset of the Iran war reversed this trend. The conflict disrupted global oil production, driven by Tehran’s limitations on the Strait of Hormuz, a key passage for global oil transit. Normally, this strait handles about one-fifth of the world’s oil.
This week, the nationwide average gas price was around $4.5, as per the American Automobile Association (AAA). This is around $1.5 higher than late February levels before Operation Epic Fury began. In California, gas prices were over $6 per gallon, whereas in Mississippi, they were just below $4.
Factors Influencing Price Reduction
Experts agree that ending the Iran war alone won’t lower U.S. gas prices. Only reopening the Strait of Hormuz to normal oil shipments can achieve this. Patrick De Haan, from GasBuddy, suggests reopening could lead to normalization.
Cinquegrana notes that normalizing oil flow through the Strait is crucial. Even if the strait reopens, it will take time. De Haan estimates a best-case scenario of two to three weeks before shipping flows normalize.
If reopened today, shipping could resume by early June, potentially reaching the market by July, but pre-war prices might take over a year to return, De Haan said.
Recent improvements in gas and oil prices, driven by optimism about negotiations, have been observed. Oil analysts remain cautious despite this.
“Despite the recent pullback, the Brent forward curve continues to reflect ongoing supply concerns,” said Adam Turnquist, Chief Technical Strategist for LPL Financial, to Newsweek. Brent futures for December 2026 remain near $80 per barrel, showing less than a week’s decline but staying above pre-conflict levels.
De Haan cautioned that until significant shipping resumes through the Strait, average gasoline prices will likely remain above $4 per gallon, as shared on social media.