Prospects of a White Christmas According to The Old Farmer’s Almanac

Americans looking forward to snow on Christmas morning might have the best chances in three particular regions. The Old Farmer’s Almanac has provided a long-range forecast indicating a likelihood of a white Christmas in the Northeast, the Intermountain region, and Alaska in 2026.

Additionally, other regions such as the Pacific Northwest, High Plains, Lower Lakes, and Ohio Valley show a possibility of experiencing snow. In contrast, the likelihood of snowfall is less promising across much of the South and central United States. Areas like the Atlantic Corridor, the Southeast, Florida, the Deep South, the Upper Midwest, Heartland, Texas-Oklahoma, the Desert Southwest, and the Pacific Southwest are not expected to witness a white Christmas. Hawaii is also anticipated to miss out.

Within the Appalachians, the forecast presents a mixed outlook: northern areas aren’t expected to see snow, while southern parts may have a potential chance.

A “white Christmas” is defined by the National Weather Service (NWS) as having at least one inch of snow on the ground at 7 am local time on Christmas Day. Snowfall occurring earlier in the month could still count if at least one inch remains on Christmas morning.

Why Some Regions Have Better Prospects

Regions with favorable chances for a white Christmas often align with areas expected to have above-normal snowfall this winter, as per the Almanac. This includes zones within the Northeast, Appalachians, select western regions of the U.S., and Alaska.

For instance, the Northeast is anticipated to have above-normal snowfall in its southern parts, with significant snowfall periods around mid- and late December. This timing might allow snow to accumulate before Christmas and stay until December 25, thus meeting criteria for an official white Christmas. Conversely, northern areas in the region may experience below-normal snowfall overall, reducing their chances.

The Intermountain region is predicted to have higher-than-usual snowfall, enhancing its prospects of snow on Christmas Day. The Pacific Northwest might also witness above-normal snowfall, although the Almanac assigns the region a mere chance for a white Christmas.

“Winter won’t look the same everywhere this year,” shares Carol Connare, editor-in-chief of The Old Farmer’s Almanac, emphasizing that while much of the nation faces a milder season, some areas will experience cold and snow.

About The Old Farmer’s Almanac

Founded in 1792, The Old Farmer’s Almanac has been offering long-range weather forecasts as a tool for farmers and gardeners. Its predictions are generated by blending solar science, climatology, and meteorology, alongside historical weather patterns, solar activity, climate data, and broader climate signals.

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) provides official U.S. long-range climate outlooks including eight-to-14-day, monthly, and seasonal forecasts, delineating probabilities for temperatures and precipitation levels.

The Almanac’s forecast for a white Christmas serves as an early signal rather than a definitive prediction of actual Christmas morning conditions. As the holiday nears, short-term forecasts are likely to offer a clearer view of the expected weather.

Historical Data Indicates Likely Snow Regions

Historically, data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows that regions like Minnesota, Maine, upstate New York, Idaho, and various mountain regions have historically had greater chances for at least an inch of snow on Christmas morning. In Alaska, a white Christmas is typical.

Weather experts caution that historical probabilities are not certain. Snow cover can significantly vary each year, influenced by weather patterns right before Christmas. The Almanac clarifies that long-range forecasts are about identifying broad weather trends, rather than precise day-to-day forecasts far in advance. The current outlook could see alterations as December approaches.

Newsweek has reached out to The Old Farmer’s Almanac for commentary. Their reporters and editors employed Martyn, Newsweek’s AI assistant, to generate this story.