Talarico’s Narrowing Poll Lead Over Paxton in Texas Senate Race

James Talarico’s lead over Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race has decreased slightly, according to new opinion polls. The number of undecided voters has also declined, indicating shifting preferences as the election approaches. The Democrats aim to win control of the Senate during the November midterms, with Texas considered a critical battleground.

The latest Texas Public Opinion Research survey, conducted from September 19 to 22, involved 1,007 likely voters. It shows Talarico leading Paxton by five percentage points, securing 49% of the vote compared to Paxton’s 44%. This survey carries a margin of error of 3.6 points. Previously, in August, Talarico held a more substantial six-point lead, but the decline in support is still within the margin of error.

The proportion of undecided voters has notably decreased from 7% in August to 3%. Libertarian candidate Ted Brown witnessed a gain of two percentage points during this period. Separate data from a Texas Southern University survey has Talarico leading Paxton by a single point. Talarico gained 47% compared to Paxton’s 46%, while Brown held 3%. This survey, involving 1,800 likely voters from September 15 to 19, has a 2.31% margin of error.

Previously, a similar survey by Texas Southern University had Talarico ahead by two points. It took place from July 27 to 30 and involved 1,200 voters. The proportion of undecided voters reduced from 6% to 4% over this period.

Newsweek has reached out to the Talarico and Paxton senate campaigns for their comments. Responses were sought over the weekend via email.

An array of other polls indicates Talarico’s advantage. Eight polling organizations show him leading Paxton, although several fall within the margin of error, making the contest highly competitive. Emerson College’s survey from September 12 to 14 found Talarico leading by a point, with a 3-point margin of error. AARP’s polling between August 30 and September 1 indicated a four-point Talarico lead. YouGov/Univision surveyed 1,000 registered voters from August 27 to September 4, showing a five-point lead for Talarico, with a margin of error of 3.6 points.

During the Texas Tribune Festival in Austin, Talarico extended a challenge to Paxton for a debate on Fox News. Accusing Paxton of avoiding debates, he suggested hosting it with Bret Baier.

Financial figures from the Federal Election Commission highlight Talarico’s funding edge. As of June 30, his campaign raised $31,853,507 compared to Paxton’s $9,147,100. Notably, 45% of Talarico’s donations originated from outside Texas, with California as a significant source. Only 17.1% of Paxton’s contributions came from out of state.

For further information on this story, contact Edward Pearcey at Newsweek.