Texas Republican Senate Primary Reflects Trump’s Influence

In the Texas Republican runoff election for the U.S. Senate, voters are choosing between state Attorney General Ken Paxton and incumbent Sen. John Cornyn. This follows a prolonged and costly primary campaign. President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Ken Paxton has added a significant boost to his campaign, potentially endangering Cornyn’s position. Cornyn, despite support from his party and a $90 million campaign focused on criticizing Paxton, now faces increased competition due to Trump’s support.

Trump’s involvement in the race is part of his broader strategy to challenge Republicans he perceives as insufficiently loyal. He has recently backed challengers in states like Louisiana, Kentucky, and Indiana. Paxton quickly capitalized on Trump’s endorsement by airing ads, while Cornyn acknowledged the impact of Trump’s support but remains focused on the voters’ decision in Texas.

The outcome of this primary will influence the November election, where the winner will run against Democratic State Rep. James Talarico. Besides the Senate race, the Democratic U.S. House nominees for districts in Dallas, Houston, and a San Antonio-area seat will also be decided. These elections are crucial for the Democrats, particularly in districts like the 35th, which they see as a potential win despite being redrawn to favor Republicans.

Cornyn had a lead in the March primary, which also included U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt, but failed to secure a majority. Pro-Cornyn groups have continuously attacked Paxton over ethical issues but have been significantly outspent in recent advertising. Trump’s endorsement came late in the campaign, after early voting had already started, with Trump lauding Paxton’s resilience and loyalty.

The negative campaigns from both sides could affect voter turnout, an election falling right after Memorial Day, according to Texas Republican strategist Tyler Norris. About 2 million voters participated in the GOP primary. Paxton’s core support comes from the staunch Trump base, raising questions about who will actually turn up to vote.

Trump’s strategy of punishing Republicans not fully aligned with him has seen results. In other states, Trump-backed challengers have defeated incumbents. Pro-Cornyn groups, however, argue that a Paxton ballot in the general election might be problematic, potentially diverting funds from defending crucial Republican seats across the country. The current Republican majority is slim, with Democrats needing four seats to gain control.

In the Democratic Party, outcomes are also pivotal. Newly elected Rep. Christian Menefee and veteran Rep. Al Green are contesting the 18th District. This reshuffle is due to redistricting efforts by the Republican-led Texas Legislature, aiming to consolidate GOP strength. Meanwhile, in the 33rd District, former Rep. Colin Allred faces U.S. Rep. Julie Johnson after abandoning his Senate run, hoping to rejoin the House.

Close attention is also given near San Antonio, where Democratic leaders are wary of Maureen Galindo’s potential runoff victory due to her controversial views. They aim to bolster Johnny Garcia’s candidacy instead. Despite redistricting efforts favoring Republicans, Democrats believe the seat is within reach.