Trump’s Approval Rating and Senate Battlegrounds Ahead of Midterms

President Donald Trump’s approval rating remains low in key Senate battleground states as Democrats and Republicans vie for control of the Senate two weeks before the midterm elections. Currently, Republicans hold a narrow majority of 53 seats to Democrats’ 47. Trump’s approval and economic perceptions have created a difficult environment for the GOP, two years after his 2024 victory.

Impact on the Midterms

Historically, when a president is unpopular, their party tends to lose seats in midterm elections. This year, Democrats are favored to regain control of the House, although the Senate presents a tougher challenge. As Trump’s approval rating has fallen, Democrats see potential in Senate races. The Cook Political Report categorizes seven races as toss-ups: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas. Trump is unpopular in all these states according to Civiqs, which tracks his approval ratings nationwide since the beginning of his second term.

“Presidential approval is one of the largest factors driving voter behavior in a midterm election,” noted Jacob Neiheisel, a political science professor at the University at Buffalo.

Trump’s low approval gives Democrats a competitive edge in traditionally tough states. Neiheisel suggests that in ‘wave’ elections, the opposing party can challenge seats considered safe. The races appear close, and a favorable outcome for Democrats could see them winning several toss-up seats. However, the accuracy of polls will only be determined on Election Day, Neiheisel added.

Trump’s Approval Rating

Trump’s national approval ratings have made the final stages of the campaign challenging for Republicans. A recent Reuters and Ipsos poll showed a net approval rating of -35 points, with 31% approving and 66% disapproving. Trump criticized these polls on Truth Social, accusing them of bias.

Democrats are hopeful of flipping the Senate, although polling inaccuracies benefiting Republicans remain a possibility. Past cycles have seen Republicans outperforming polling averages in key races, though this trend may not repeat. A similar error this cycle could hinder Democrats’ chances.

Key Senate Races and Trump’s Approval

Alaska

In Alaska, Trump’s rating stands at -12 points. The state has grown less conservative over decades, making Senator Dan Sullivan’s race against Democrat Mary Peltola competitive. The latest polls show Sullivan trailing, assisted by Trump’s campaign support.

Iowa

Trump’s approval in Iowa is -22 points. Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson faces Democrat Josh Turek in a competitive race. Iowa, once a battleground, shifted rightward during Trump’s presidency. Recent polls indicate a tight contest with Turek slightly leading in one poll and trailing in another.

Kansas

Kansas presents a closer race than anticipated. GOP Senator Roger Marshall, challenged by Democrat Adam Hamilton, benefits from Trump’s support. Trump’s approval splits Kansans, and polls reflect a neck-and-neck race between the two candidates.

Maine

In Maine, Senator Susan Collins faces Democrat Troy Jackson. Trump is unpopular here, impacting Collins’ re-election bid. Collins’ moderate image and deviation from Trump may sway ticket-splitters essential for her campaign.

Michigan

Michigan’s race features Democrat Abdul El-Sayed against Republican Mike Rogers to replace retiring Democrat Gary Peters. Trump, less popular in Michigan, factors into the close contest. Polls suggest a tight race.

Ohio

Ohio’s Senate race involves Republican Jon Husted and Democrat Sherrod Brown. Trump’s low approval influences voters as Husted navigates his association with Trump. Brown leads narrowly in polls.

Texas

Texas, seen as a GOP stronghold, now witnesses a competitive race. Trump’s approval has dipped, impacting GOP Attorney General Ken Paxton’s campaign against Democrat James Talarico. Recent polls show Talarico slightly leading.

Prediction Markets

Democrats are emerging as favorites in prediction markets. On platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, their chances of securing a majority are rated above 60%. However, prediction markets reflect trader sentiment rather than guaranteed outcomes.

Looking Ahead

Trump’s approval rating will continue to be a critical indicator of voter sentiment as the midterms approach. Factors like the economy could influence perceptions, impacting voter decisions in races across the battleground states.