Wisconsin Governor Race: Poll Reveals Tight Contest Between Tiffany and Crowley

A recent Marquette Law poll reveals a statistical tie in the Wisconsin governor race between Republican Representative Tom Tiffany and Democratic Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley. Tiffany has distanced himself from President Donald Trump on several issues, affecting his standings.

The poll indicates Crowley holds 49% of likely voters, while Tiffany trails with 46%. Undecided voters constitute 5%. Among registered voters, Crowley has 46%, Tiffany has 45%, and 9% remain undecided. The margin of error for likely voters is 4.8%, and for registered voters, it’s 4.3%.

Midterm Election Context

Midterm elections often reflect the political climate facing the ruling party, traditionally resulting in seat losses for the president’s party. Currently, Republicans narrowly control both the House and Senate. In Wisconsin, two-term Democratic Governor Tony Evers is retiring, making the gubernatorial seat a key target for both parties.

Campaign Commentary

David Crowley’s campaign manager, Garren Randolph commented: “We’ve seen unprecedented spending from Trump-aligned billionaires, totaling nearly $10 million towards Tom Tiffany’s campaign. Despite this, Wisconsinites remain supportive of Crowley for his dedication to serve their interests.”

Tom Tiffany, in response, criticized Crowley’s “tax-hiking record” as Milwaukee County Executive, suggesting Crowley’s policies would financially burden Wisconsin residents. Tiffany advocates for utilizing Wisconsin’s $3 billion surplus to reduce taxes.

Poll Analysis

The latest poll shows a closer race compared to last month. Last month’s likely voter support had Crowley at 49% and Tiffany at 44%. Among registered voters, both candidates were tied at 44%. Tiffany’s support among Republicans increased by 4 points. However, Crowley’s support among Democrats dropped by 2 points, and his standing with independents fell by 11 points. Tiffany gained 2% among independents, while undecided independents increased by 8 points.

Crowley’s favorability stands at 31%, with an unfavorable rating of 44%. Tiffany’s favorability is 39%, with a 45% unfavorable rating. Trump’s approval in Wisconsin has decreased from 40% to 38%, with his disapproval rate climbing to 60%.

Tiffany’s Separation from Trump

Tiffany has broken from Trump on several matters. Trump controversially proposed renaming Lake Ontario to “Lake America,” a move Tiffany opposed. He stated, “I believe the Great Lakes should maintain their historical names.” Tiffany also disagreed with Trump on supporting subsidies for data centers, stating Wisconsin residents shouldn’t subsidize wealthy companies.

On the issue of imported beef, Trump recently announced tariff waivers to lower grocery store prices. Tiffany opposes these waivers, supporting Wisconsin farmers.

Comparative Polls

Platform Communications poll shows Crowley leading by 4 points at 48% against Tiffany’s 44%. RMG Research poll indicates Crowley with 46%, Tiffany at 43%, according to July data. Both polls reinforce the competitive nature of this gubernatorial race.