Republicans’ Support for Trump Dips Amid Economic Concerns

Republican Support Shifts: The latest poll from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research highlights a change in Republican support for President Donald Trump regarding his economic policies. Currently, about 60% of Republicans approve of Trump’s management of the economy, a drop from approximately 80% earlier this year before the escalation with Iran.

The rising tension with Iran has led to higher gasoline prices, complicating the path to a permanent ceasefire. Despite these economic challenges, Trump maintains considerable influence within his party. His political strength was evident when his chosen candidate won a primary election against Trump critic, Rep. Thomas Massie. The situation underscores Trump’s enduring hold on the GOP, even in the face of growing economic dissatisfaction.

Ariel Gutierrez, a 55-year-old Republican in Wisconsin, shares personal experiences with rising gas costs. Normally, his teenage children cover their own gas expenses. However, recent price surges have prompted him to assist his 15-year-old, who is new to driving. “The whole Iran issue has just exacerbated it,” Gutierrez observes, highlighting the broader impact of current policies.

Trump’s Popularity Beyond the Base: Despite his firm support base, Trump’s popularity struggles beyond it. The poll indicates only 37% overall approval of Trump’s performance, reflecting a slight increase from 33% in April. The majority of Democrats and about seven in ten independents disapprove of Trump’s performance. A similar trend is visible in his economic ratings, with only one-third of U.S. adults supporting his economic management.

Trump’s economic appeal, strong in his first term, faces skepticism due to continued price increases under his leadership. This sentiment is notable among Republicans, with 63% approving of his economic policies, down from 79% before the conflict with Iran.

Richard Baumgartner, a 77-year-old Republican from Las Vegas, rationalizes the economic situation. “Unfortunately, because of the war, the economy is a little bit off-kilter,” he explains, expressing hope for stabilization once international tensions ease.

Immigration as a Strength: Trump’s handling of immigration has seen an uptick in approval. Early in his second term, around half of U.S. adults favored his immigration policies. Though this dropped to 38% in early 2023, recent recalibrations in enforcement strategies have bolstered his approval to 45%.

Brenda Theiss, an independent from Alabama, recognizes Trump’s effectiveness on immigration. “He’s closing the border. He did it,” she says, contrasting Trump’s actions with previous administrations.

Trump’s immigration policies resonate well with Republicans; 80% approve of his approach, higher than his overall presidential approval among them.

Challenges in Foreign Policy: Foreign policy remains a challenging area for Trump. One-third of Americans approve of his strategy in Iran, with similar approval for his broader international policies.

Amanda Wylie, a Republican-leaning independent from Georgia, critiques the resource allocation in Iran. “Especially if everyone is worried about gas prices and the ultimate goal of this is to prevent Iran from having a nuclear weapon. Yes, that’s important, but at what cost?” Wylie questions, signaling concerns among younger Republicans.

The AP-NORC poll sampled 1,117 adults from May 14-18, ensuring a representative cross-section of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.