Cori Bush’s Political Comeback in Missouri

Cori Bush, once a member of Congress and aligned with the progressive “Squad,” is trying for a political comeback in Missouri. She will face Representative Wesley Bell, who defeated her in a contentious 2024 primary. Missouri voters will visit the polls on August 4 for statewide primaries leading up to November’s midterms. St. Louis provides a new test for progressives, who have gained ground in places like New York City, Philadelphia, and Denver.

Background on Missouri’s 1st District Race

In this district, voters will decide between Bell, a moderate, and Bush, a staunch progressive who served from 2021 to 2025. Bell, a local prosecutor, unseated Bush two years ago in a race marked by significant outside spending, including investment from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC)’s United Democracy Project. Bell criticized Bush’s vote against President Joe Biden’s bipartisan infrastructure bill.

Progressives supporting Bush believe the political climate has shifted since 2024. Democratic voters express frustration with the party establishment’s approach to President Trump. There is a noticeable trend of voters choosing progressive candidates over entrenched incumbents in recent primaries. This primary serves as a gauge of the Democratic electorate’s mood before the midterms.

Newsweek reached out to Bell and Bush for comments by email.

Polls and Prediction Markets

Limited polling exists for the district based around St. Louis. Only one survey, an internal poll by Bush, has been released. This HIT Strategies poll showed Bell slightly ahead. Bell had 44% support compared to Bush’s 40%, with 17% undecided. Favorability ratings showed 52% view Bush positively, while 45% view Bell favorably. This poll covered 401 likely Democratic primary voters from February 19-23, with a margin of error of +/- 5.4 percentage points.

Prediction markets currently favor Bell to win. Kalshi assigns Bell a 59% chance of winning, while Bush has a 40% chance. This is a change from one month earlier when Bush had a 53% chance to Bell’s 45.1%. Polymarket shows Bell with a 64% chance. Prediction markets aggregate real-money wagers into probability estimates, reflecting trader sentiment but not always predicting accurately.

Whoever wins the primary is favored to win in November. The district is significantly Democratic, with Trump losing by nearly 58 points in 2024.

Progressive Support for Bush

Bush has attracted support from prominent progressives for her campaign. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Michigan Representative Rashida Tlaib back her return effort. Justice Democrats, a progressive organization, is also supporting her. Bell, on the other hand, is backed by House leadership and AIPAC, registering him as a “Pro-Israel Incumbent.”

Analysis of the 2024 Primary

In 2024, Bell defeated Bush in a costly primary. AIPAC invested over $8 million to oppose Bush due to her stance against U.S. military aid to Israel. Bush criticized Bell’s support from AIPAC, reflecting changing views on Israel among Democrats. A Pew Research Center survey showed decreasing favorability for Israel among Democrats, with only 43% viewing the Israeli people favorably, down from 58% in 2024.

Bush’s recent campaign ad emphasizes her accomplishments in Congress, including fighting against the genocide in Gaza. She claims St. Louis needs a fighter in Washington.

Bell argues Bush is not serious, focusing on her own interests rather than constituents. He asserts he works daily for the people of St. Louis, in contrast to Bush, whom he claims lost focus.

Progressive Victories in Primaries

Progressives have achieved important wins in recent primaries. In New York, Claire Valdez claimed an open seat, succeeding Representative Nydia Velázquez. Two incumbents lost to progressive challengers: Brad Lander defeated Dan Goldman, while Darializa Avila Chevalier unseated Adriano Espaillat.

In Colorado, Melat Kiros won against Diana DeGette in Denver. Justice Democrat-backed candidates like Chris Rabb in Pennsylvania, Adam Hamawy in New Jersey, and Frederick Haynes III in Texas also scored victories. They are likely favorites for November, running in solidly Democratic districts.