Anthony DiLorenzo Wins Republican Primary in New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District

President Donald Trump celebrated a win with his endorsed candidate, Anthony DiLorenzo, clinching the Republican primary in New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District. DiLorenzo, a local businessman, won over Hollie Noveletsky, a former vice chair of the New Hampshire Republican Party. According to The Associated Press, DiLorenzo garnered 51.5 percent of the vote, while Noveletsky received 26.8 percent. The race was decided at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday.

Trump’s Influence in Republican Primaries

Trump’s endorsement has proven influential in many Republican primaries. However, his backing does not automatically assure a win. Instances of other Republicans defeating Trump-endorsed candidates exist. DiLorenzo’s win reflects Trump’s ongoing appeal among GOP voters, despite polls showing Noveletsky leading by 3 points in late August. A University of New Hampshire survey of 443 Republican voters indicated Noveletsky’s advantage at 28 percent to DiLorenzo’s 25 percent.

Donald Trump’s Endorsement Success

Trump endorsed DiLorenzo in July on Truth Social, highlighting his business success and calling him an “America First Patriot.” The former president has backed numerous candidates ahead of the midterms, maintaining a 96 percent success rate in primaries according to Ballotpedia. Despite this, some Trump-backed candidates have faced defeats.

Examples include Tennessee’s 5th Congressional District, where Trump-endorsed Andy Ogles lost to Charlie Hatcher. In Florida’s 19th District, Catalina Lauf, supported by Trump, was defeated by Jim Schwartzel. Additionally, Amir Hassan in Michigan’s 8th District lost to Thomas J. Smith, who later endorsed another candidate.

Several Trump-backed gubernatorial contenders, such as Burt Jones in Georgia and Randy Feenstra in Iowa, also faced losses. Despite these setbacks, Trump’s approval remains high among Republican primary voters, with a +62-point net approval among Republicans as shown by a YouGov and The Economist poll. This survey sampled 1,592 adults from August 28 to 31, revealing a -24-point overall net approval for Trump.

Challenges in New Hampshire’s 1st District

The district, currently held by Democrat Chris Pappas, is seen as competitive with Democrats favored to retain control. Markets like Kalshi and Polymarket give Democrats an 88-89 percent chance of victory. The district showed support for former Vice President Kamala Harris by over 2 points in the 2024 election, signaling its competitiveness.

While Democrats benefit from Trump’s declining national approval, Republicans aim to counter the predicted “blue wave.” GOP Governor Kelly Ayotte is poised for reelection, with a competitive Senate race adding to their hopes.

New Hampshire’s 1st District includes eastern parts of the state, such as Portsmouth and Dover, where Democrats typically lead. However, Republicans do well in suburban areas outside Manchester and the Lakes Region. These dynamics keep the district competitive. Pappas secured the seat by wider margins in recent elections, winning by 8 points both in 2022 and 2024.

Political forecasters like The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball currently give Democrats an edge, rating the race as Likely Democrat and Leans Democratic, respectively.