Ohio Governor Race: Ramaswamy’s Chances Decline on Prediction Markets

Republican candidate for Ohio Governor Vivek Ramaswamy is grappling with decreasing odds in his race against Democrat Amy Acton. On Monday, prediction market site Kalshi revealed Ramaswamy’s chances had dipped to a new low as the electoral battle intensifies before the midterms.

According to Kalshi, Ramaswamy’s odds fell below Acton’s in April, then surged at the end of May. By August 13, he lagged behind Acton again and has not recovered. On Monday, Kalshi shared on X that Ramaswamy’s 43 percent odds marked his lowest ever.

Midterm elections are often a gauge of the political climate for the party in power. Historically, the president’s party loses seats in these elections. Republicans currently have a slim majority in both the House and Senate. In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump claimed victory in Ohio over then-Vice President Kamala Harris by a significant margin. Trump has endorsed Ramaswamy, who also ran for the White House two years ago.

Newsweek reached out to the campaigns of both Acton and Ramaswamy for comment.

Details of the Race

Ramaswamy faces Acton, a physician and former leader of Ohio’s Department of Health. This race unfolds as GOP Governor Mike DeWine approaches the end of his term.

Ohio supported former President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 but has leaned Republican recently, backing Trump in three consecutive presidential elections. Democrats experienced a significant loss when long-serving Senator Sherrod Brown lost his seat to Republican Bernie Moreno. However, Democrats view Ohio as a prime opportunity in the 2026 midterms. Alongside targeting the governor’s race, they have their sights on Brown’s Senate comeback against Republican Senator Jon Husted.

Recent surveys suggest tight races, with Acton and Brown frequently holding narrow leads. The Cook Political Report rates the Ohio Senate race as a toss-up. Democrats aim to leverage Trump’s declining approval, as well as contentious policies like immigration and the economy, amid the Iran conflict.

Prediction market site Polymarket gives Acton a 58 percent chance of winning versus Ramaswamy’s 41 percent. Acton has led Ramaswamy since late August, according to Polymarket.

Craig Agranoff from Florida Atlantic University commented to Newsweek, “A drop for Ramaswamy on Kalshi is noteworthy because Ohio should favor a Republican. When traders put Acton near 57 to 59 percent, they anticipate a challenging midterm environment for the party in power and questions about Ramaswamy’s appeal to independents.”

He remarked that prediction markets are not definitive indicators but serve as early warnings. “Parties monitor prediction markets more now than previously, especially operatives and donors looking for a live scoreboard. They do not replace polls or turnout models. Kalshi is an early alert, not a voter substitute. Sites like PredictionEdge.com are gaining popularity for political predictions.”

Polling Insights

A YouGov and Bowling Green State University poll this month signals that 48 percent favor Acton, while 45 percent prefer Ramaswamy in Ohio’s gubernatorial race. Four percent support Libertarian Don Kissick, and 3 percent back another candidate. When asked who they believe will win regardless of preference, 62 percent chose Ramaswamy, 36 percent Acton, and 1 percent Kissick.

This poll surveyed 1,000 likely Ohio voters between September 1 and September 10, with a 4 percent margin of error.

A Wedgewood poll shows Acton leading by 1 percent, with 48 percent compared to Ramaswamy’s 47 percent; 7 percent remain undecided. It surveyed 800 likely voters from August 11 to August 13, with a 4 percent margin of error.

Ramaswamy leads in a Fox News Poll, conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, with 50 percent compared to Acton’s 48 percent. This marked a change from June when Acton led by 1 point. The poll also found Ramaswamy’s favorability at 46 percent and his unfavorability at 44 percent. Acton’s favorability was at 43 percent against a 47 percent unfavorable rating. This poll was held from August 6 to August 10 among 1,008 Ohio registered voters and had a 3 percent margin of error.

The Cook Political Report rates this race as a toss-up.

Note: Newsweek’s team employed Martyn, an AI assistant, to create this report.