Two weeks before the midterm elections and 21 months into his second term, President Donald Trump’s approval rating is low in 41 states, including key battlegrounds. This is based on new polling from Civiqs, which surveyed 137,330 registered voters from January 2025 to October 2026. A Newsweek analysis compared current state ratings with those at the start of Trump’s second term. Trump’s net approval, calculated as approval minus disapproval, stands at -29 nationally, with 32% approval and 61% disapproval.
Approval in Nine States
Trump’s net approval is positive in nine states. Wyoming leads at +14, followed by North Dakota at +11. Other positive states include West Virginia (+8), Arkansas (+7), Idaho (+4), Alabama (+3), South Dakota (+2), and both Oklahoma and Utah at +1. Despite positive ratings in these states, all have shown significant declines since January 2025.
Demographic Insights
Demographic data reveal disparities in Trump’s approval. Among those aged 18-34, only 20% approve while 72% disapprove. Among voters 35-49 years old, approval is 25% with 66% disapproval. Older age groups are less negative: 50-64-year-olds show 40% approval to 54% disapproval, and those 65 and older have a 42% approval to 53% disapproval rate.
Independents disapprove by 66% to 25%, while Republicans largely support Trump, 75% to 13%. Female voters disapprove by 66% to 28%, compared to a 55% to 37% split among male voters. Education also factors in, with Trump’s approval at 20% among postgraduates, 31% among college graduates, and 36% among non-college graduates, with disapproval outweighing approval in all groups.
Battleground State Overview
Key battleground states remain challenging for Trump. His current net ratings are:
- Arizona: -20
- Florida: -17
- Georgia: -26
- Michigan: -28
- Nevada: -24
- North Carolina: -17
- Ohio: -21
- Pennsylvania: -23
- Wisconsin: -23
These figures reflect a decline from the start of Trump’s second term when several battlegrounds were either positive or neutral.
Impact on Senate Races
Trump has negative net approval in six states with critical Senate races: Maine (-33), Michigan (-28), Iowa (-22), Ohio (-21), Texas (-21), and Alaska (-12). These numbers suggest Republican campaigns are fighting harder for undecided voters in these areas.
Largest Approval Declines
Trump’s net approval has decreased in every state since January 2025. Notable declines include:
- Kentucky: +23 to -13, a 36-point drop
- Wyoming: +47 to +14, a 33-point drop
- Idaho: +34 to +4, a 30-point drop
- Oklahoma: +31 to +1, a 30-point drop
- Ohio: +8 to -21, a 29-point drop
- Tennessee: +25 to -4, a 29-point drop
The most significant declines have occurred in states that once favored Trump, rather than Democrat strongholds.
Strong Opposition in Democratic States
In traditionally Democratic states, Trump’s approval remains low. Hawaii records the lowest net approval at -61, followed by Maryland (-54), Vermont (-53), Massachusetts (-49), and California (-47). Declines here are less dramatic as these states were already unfavorably disposed towards Trump when his second term began.
White House Response
The White House underscores Trump’s leadership of the Republican Party, asserting that his performance will galvanize support in the midterms. Spokesperson Davis Ingle refers to Trump as the GOP’s leader and a key motivator, citing tax policies, border security, and employment achievements as part of his ‘commonsense agenda’.
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