Analyzing Claims About Noncitizen Voting in the 2020 Election

In his latest challenge regarding the 2020 U.S. election results, former President Donald Trump referenced a report alleging widespread noncitizen voting, which studies show is quite rare. Trump’s post on Truth Social pointed to a report he claimed was from the U.S. Census Bureau. According to him, this report matched ‘Voter Records from 2020 against their Citizenship Records,’ purportedly finding 24,000 noncitizens voting unlawfully in their initial search. Experts, however, argue that the report’s methodology is flawed and likely contains numerous false positives.

Understanding the Report’s Claims

The key claim is that a Census Bureau report examining 128 million voters indicates that over 24,000 noncitizens voted in the 2020 election. This assertion is false. The report claimed to compare data from a commercial voter file with federal records to identify alleged noncitizen voters. Experts have raised concerns about the report’s methodology, suggesting it might generate false positives. This could occur if names are linked to incorrect addresses or if citizenship status updates were missing in certain databases. Further details on error rates and measures for ensuring accuracy are notably absent.

Expert Opinions and Analysis

Mark Lindeman, the policy and strategy director at Verified Voting, criticized the report for its lack of detailed methodology, stating, ‘This document doesn’t tell us anything about elections. It just shows that the Census Bureau has gone off the rails.’ Additionally, questions have arisen about which databases the Census Bureau utilized, leading Lindeman to label the report as ‘essentially a propaganda offering.’

The seven-page report indicates that, from nearly 160 million voter records reviewed, over 24,000 voters were linked to administrative records suggesting noncitizen status during the election. More than 32 million voter records remain unexamined. Justin Levitt, a law professor at Loyola Marymount University, identified three potential error sources in the analysis: mistakes in the private vendor’s voter file, inaccuracies in federal records, and errors in the matching process.

Possible data flaws include individuals with the same name or birthday living at the same address, leading to mistaken identity. Similarly, voters’ citizenship status might not reflect updates in the databases consulted for determining status. Barry Burden, director of the University of Wisconsin-Madison’s Elections Research Center, criticized the report for lacking rigor and transparency typically associated with Census Bureau publications, noting the absence of necessary methodological details.

Impact on Election Outcome

Trump reiterated his claim of winning the 2020 election and advocated for the SAVE America Act, which mandates proof of citizenship and voter ID requirements nationwide before registering to vote. Although the measure has passed the U.S. House, it remains unvoted on in the Senate, with some Republican opposition.

The purported noncitizen voter count would have had minimal impact on the election results, regardless of their voting choices. According to Federal Election Commission records, 158,429,631 votes were cast in the presidential election. The 24,000 alleged noncitizen voters represent merely 0.015% of the total vote and 0.018% of reviewed records. Former President Joe Biden surpassed Trump’s vote count by 7,059,526. Numbers cited in the Census analysis were smaller than the victory margins in each state, insufficient to alter the result in any state.

David Becker, executive director at the Center for Election Innovation and Research, confirmed, ‘All of the numbers cited in the Census analysis are smaller than the margins of victory in each state and would not have been enough to change the winner of any state in 2020.’

In response, White House spokesperson Lauren Bis asserted, ‘President Trump is right: Non-citizens are voting in our elections. Despite the media and Democrats claiming it never happens, the evidence of non-citizens registering and voting in our elections continues to pile up.’ The Census Bureau did not respond to inquiries for comment.

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