AccuWeather’s lead long-range expert, Paul Pastelok, has indicated that significant weather changes are anticipated in major U.S. cities this winter owing to a strengthening El Niño. This climatic event is projected to intensify by the year’s end, with forecasts suggesting a greater than 90% chance of a very strong occurrence during the fall and winter.
Understanding El Niño
El Niño represents the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a frequent climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean that can impact global weather. The cool counterpart to this phase is known as La Niña. Common effects of El Niño include stormier weather in southern regions, drier conditions in certain northern areas, and variations in hurricane activity.
Historically, powerful El Niño episodes have been linked to significant weather extremes. The 1997-98 Super El Niño led to destructive flooding in places like California and Peru, while the 2015-16 phenomenon coincided with record-breaking global temperatures and widespread climate shifts.
Most Affected Cities
Pastelok has pointed out that cities such as Los Angeles, San Francisco, Houston, and Atlanta are likely to experience heightened rainfall and potential flooding due to the strong El Niño influence. Typically, a southern storm track results, affecting these areas more frequently throughout late fall and winter. California, with its vulnerable landscape, may face landslides.
He also noted that river levels along key waterways like the Mississippi, Tennessee Valley, and the Carolinas could rise rapidly, impacting surrounding cities. On the East Coast, cities including Norfolk, Virginia; Atlantic City; and Boston, Massachusetts, might encounter strong storms, leading to coastal flooding and high winds.
NOAA’s Winter Predictions
According to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), above-average temperatures are forecast across large sections of the U.S. This spans from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Rockies and further to the Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. The most pronounced warm signals are expected along parts of the northern tier.
In southern areas, above-normal temperatures are also expected, although there is less certainty in areas like California and the Southwest. Regarding precipitation, the CPC’s map indicates wetter-than-normal conditions are probable from Southern California through the Southwest, Southern Plains, Gulf Coast, Florida, and parts of the East Coast.
In a recent update, the CPC increased the probability of El Niño reaching historic strength during the October to December period to 75%, up from 69% in their August update. While such an occurrence might boost the likelihood of typical El Niño impacts, these weather effects are not assured.
For additional information, contact Newsweek editors Ben Kelly and Anthony Murray.
Lobster Boats and the Surveillance Debate 
Impact of Construction on Big Bend National Park’s Border 
Court Rules Against Federal Order on Coal Plant Operations 
New Beach Hazard Warnings for Lake Michigan 
El Niño’s Impact: Rising Sea Levels Threaten U.S. West Coast 
Nuclear Microreactor Project in Indiana Signals U.S. Nuclear Energy Revival