Iowa Senate Race: Josh Turek Gains Ground

A new poll indicates that Democrat Josh Turek is gaining support from people who voted for President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election. Turek is competing to become Iowa’s next U.S. senator, facing Republican Ashley Hinson for the open seat of retiring Republican Senator Joni Ernst. This year, Iowa’s Senate race remains highly competitive.

Poll Insights and Candidate Performance

The YouGov poll surveyed 2,245 likely Iowa voters between October 6 and October 12. Turek leads Hinson 47% to 46%, with 4% of voters undecided. Importantly, the poll suggests Turek is winning over some Trump voters. Among respondents, 41% backed Kamala Harris in 2024, while 52% voted for Trump previously. The margin of error stands at 3.1%.

Previous polls presented varied results. A Suffolk University poll from October 1 to 4 showed Turek with a 48% lead to Hinson’s 44%. A Beacon Research analysis in late September showed Turek ahead 49% to 47%. However, Hinson’s support shows in other polls. Emerson College placed Hinson at 47% to Turek’s 45% in early October. CNN and Quantus Insights also reported narrow leads for Hinson.

Approval Ratings and Market Predictions

The poll also shed light on Trump’s Iowa approval. 29% strongly approved of his presidency, while 49% strongly disapproved. Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi show Hinson with a lead. On Polymarket, Hinson is favored at 57% compared to Turek’s 42%. Similarly, Kalshi places her at 58% to Turek’s 42%.

Why Iowa’s Senate Race Is Critical

Midterms in 2026 might flip House and Senate control. Iowa’s political landscape is historically mixed. Despite recent Republican dominance, both parties have won state votes in the past. Trump’s previous victories contrast with Barack Obama’s earlier wins in Iowa.

The poll provides positive news for Turek, with the last Democrat Iowa Senate victory occurring 18 years ago. Early voting started Tuesday and runs through November 2. The midterm elections take place on November 3.